54.53 BTC
5.07 BTC

US Federal Minimum Wage will be raised above $7.25 by the end of 2013

The U.S. Federal minimum wage will be raised above $7.25 by the end of 2013. Approved proposals alone will not qualify as Yes; federal minimum wage increase must go into effect by the end of the year.

Bet outcome: No
  • Category:Politics
  • Bet started:11 months 2 weeks ago (02-04-2013)
  • Bet closed: 2 months 2 weeks ago (28-12-2013)
  • Resolved: 2 months 1 week ago (31-12-2013)
  • Weighted No: 909`568
  • Weighted Yes: 496`250
  • Confirmed bets: 34 ( No: 32  /  Yes: 2 )
  • Histograph:
CONFIRMED BETS: 59.60 BTC
TIME BET WEIGHT BTC IN IN BTC OUT OUT  
02-04-13 19:08 Yes 100`000 0.07000000 1Hfoz 0.00000000 1F5xm
02-04-13 19:08 No 100`000 0.03000000 1GyRN 0.04625499 1CApz
04-04-13 04:12 No 99`488 0.05000000 1Fv7D 0.07695039 14fXM
08-04-13 14:02 Yes 97`850 5.00000000 1P8VG 0.00000000 1K4Fs
12-04-13 06:28 No 96`481 0.10000000 1N4qr 0.15224142 1CT8V
28-04-13 04:26 No 90`569 0.10000000 19TDc 0.14897898 1EL1y
22-07-13 18:41 No 58`774 0.00050000 1KSQH 0.00065716 19P9u
19-08-13 06:49 No 48`557 0.10000000 123Wb 0.12579536 18HT2
03-09-13 04:43 No 43`017 0.03000000 12BSW 0.03682146 17TA7
05-09-13 05:23 No 42`264 0.35000000 12Cpj 0.42812937 1CCau
05-09-13 11:53 No 42`163 0.10021200 12cxB 0.12252614 1MisH
05-09-13 14:12 No 42`128 4.06870000 12Cy9 4.97388931 1C8SD
09-09-13 21:51 No 40`523 0.77760000 12FFS 0.94371042 1EXzq
15-09-13 10:54 No 38`464 0.04000000 12hjZ 0.04809028 1Nn5f
15-09-13 20:33 No 38`315 0.20000000 12hP7 0.24028697 1CCau
15-09-13 22:54 No 38`278 0.40000000 12Hrx 0.48049228 15Jx3
17-09-13 14:58 No 37`658 0.31379344 12ibK 0.37586471 16mGX
19-09-13 19:36 No 36`843 0.40000000 12jDB 0.47732476 1GUXv
20-09-13 01:05 No 36`758 0.50000000 12jeu 0.59642142 15Jx3
23-09-13 04:59 No 35`584 0.19065904 12jmY 0.22619108 1EXzq
01-10-13 17:14 No 32`423 0.04250000 12MoZ 0.04967913 17RHd
02-10-13 07:13 No 32`206 0.05137251 12MwE 0.05998888 1MeVW
02-10-13 23:27 No 31`955 0.09523809 12NQP 0.11107983 18Hbg
03-10-13 06:09 No 31`851 0.30000000 12nxN 0.34972931 1EXzq
06-10-13 11:14 No 30`658 0.01000000 12pcN 0.01159181 15Uv5
23-10-13 02:59 No 24`471 0.17000000 12uPJ 0.19125664 1CCau
23-10-13 19:27 No 24`216 1.00000000 12usH 1.12363193 1CCau
26-10-13 23:43 No 23`036 0.10000000 12VLk 0.11171203 16c9F
29-10-13 04:22 No 22`221 0.01000000 12wcp 0.01112622 1B6fN
01-11-13 03:30 No 21`120 5.00000000 12xFb 5.53273588 178xN
07-11-13 15:42 No 18`702 7.00000000 1354U 7.65242694 1NfXM
14-11-13 03:33 No 16`290 2.00000000 13BfB 2.15978726 1N7az
14-11-13 19:20 No 16`045 1.00000000 13brY 1.07854164 1CCau
05-12-13 20:59 No 8`219 30.00000000 13S2A 31.06065517 18KeM
DISCUSSION
  • #1806: Anonymous 20-11-13 at 22:46

    Beware of this website! READ THIS BEFORE BETTING: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=339544.0;all

    #2075: Read The FAQ 14-12-13 at 15:33

    Or save yourself some time and read the site’s FAQ before betting and understand how Bitcoin works so you don’t waste your money betting at the last minute.

    #2076: Anonymous 14-12-13 at 17:39

    this is somethign i don’t understand: someone placed a 30 btc bet with a time-weight 8219. so that means the maximum payout is 8.219% assuming an even # of bets on YES/NO side but that is not the case– the actual #’s are 54 NO and 5 YES so that makes the payoff even less attractive… why would someone risk almost $30,000 to get paid a few hundred bucks? seems like a really poor ROI…. better off putting that money in the bank… and earning 1.5% interest on it….? i just don’t understand this– am i missing something? like the maximum payout the person who put in 30 BTC on "no" will be around 0.4BTC… not to mention the counter-party risk…. what if bitbet.us goes off-line…. at least in the bank you have FDIC insurance for up to $250,000 per account…

    #2077: Anonymous 14-12-13 at 18:24

    I don’t think you understand how the weighting system works here. His maximum payout is 30+1.06 BTC (and seeing the state of the bet that’s most likely what he’ll get). So you’re right it’s not a whole lot and I totally agree on the risk of bitbet going dark for some reason. But if he wins he’ll still get an interest of 3.5% on his bet in the space of less than a month. I’d like to see you try to get that at a bank, any bank.

    #2080: Anonymous 14-12-13 at 22:23

    Moreover, maybe he judges the risk of BitBet going dark less than the risk of him losing his wallet somehow. In which case it’sd actually > 3.5%.

    #2081: Anonymous 15-12-13 at 00:53

    how did you calculate 30+1.06BTC, what math did you use? i’m going by what the the bitbet calculator says– i just typed 30btc and it said "No" pays: 30.38849611 BTC. that’ show i got my + 0.40BTC value, based on the calculator and based on the fact that the time weight a few weeks ago was slightly higher…

    #2082: Anonymous 15-12-13 at 00:58

    regarding your second point, i’m also struggling to understand that– some people on here have said that bitbet is their "cold storage"– as though to imply that if their wallets get stolen the coins are safe with bitbet– but the flaw that i find with this argument is that if your wallet is compromised let’s say, then whenever your bet expires, whoever compromised your bet will receive the money once bitbet sends it back to the wallet…. so what am i missing? i really would like to understand this, i’m not trying to be an ass.

    #2083: Anonymous 15-12-13 at 02:11

    Anon, current weight is 4k, weight at the time of the bet you’re discussing is about 9k. The difference between your .4 and his 1.06 comes exactly from there.

    #2084: Anonymous 15-12-13 at 02:16

    There are many ways to use BitBet as cold wallet. I. Make paper wallets, use the addresses there for the winnings, send bets from your normal wallet. II. Make web-based wallet, use that for winnings, once the winnings are paid move BTC off immediately. That is also how it works for a compromised wallet: if someone manages to get your wallet they are probably going to empty it, but they are not likely going to keep a bitcoin client running forever scanning the blockchain in the hopes that maybe two weeks or five months later that wallet gets a BitBet payment. So you just watch it once it comes in and move it to safety, possibly before the thief even notices.

    #2085: Anonymous 15-12-13 at 04:10

    Well, first that was not my second point, it was some other anon. But my calculation of 30+1.06 is fairly easy. You just can’t get there by just inputting 30 in the calculator, why? First, because the weight is lower now but second and most importantly because when the bet was made the overall "no weight" was lower as it did not include his gigantic bet. To calculate his winnings, here’s what you do: 1.Calculate his weight, 8.21930=246.570 ; 2. Divide this by the overall "no weight" to figure out his stake in the winnings, 246.570/909.568=0.271 ; 3. He thus stands to gain 0.2715.07=1.374 BTC on top of the original 30 ; 4.You deduct 1% of the 31.374 for the BitBet fee and you get… 31.06 BTC. You’re welcome

    #2171: Anonymous 22-12-13 at 21:48

    I think this should be closed as neither house has passed a hike (which would be the first step to a YES resolution) and they are out of session until 2014. I’m saying this considering that you have resolved the ENDA bet when it’s way less restrictive (no need for implementation)

    #2173: Anonymous 22-12-13 at 23:02

    You’re discounting the fact that the US Congress has long ceased having any actual input in the governing of the US. If Obama comes up on TV declaring that the law shall henceforth be X, that’s what it is over there.

    #2212: Anonymous 01-01-14 at 01:14

    This is a big fat no, resolve it!