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BTC network difficulty tops 25 million by end of June

Bitcoin network difficulty will rise above 25 million by the end of June 2013.

Bet outcome: No
  • Category:Bitcoin
  • Bet started:1 year 1 month ago (25-05-2013)
  • Bet closed: 1 year 2 weeks ago (24-06-2013)
  • Resolved: 1 year 1 week ago (01-07-2013)
  • Weighted No: 2`891`583
  • Weighted Yes: 2`568`923
  • Confirmed bets: 63 ( No: 49  /  Yes: 14 )
  • Histograph: Histograph
CONFIRMED BETS: 168.36 BTC
TIME BET WEIGHT BTC IN IN BTC OUT OUT
25-05-13 23:56 Yes 99`961 0.03000000 19bj3 0.000000001Eteo 
 
25-05-13 23:56 No 99`961 0.07000000 1Lggo 0.173703601F5xm 
 
25-05-13 23:56 Yes 99`961 2.00000000 1Fj94 0.000000001Eteo 
 
26-05-13 02:42 No 99`564 0.40000000 1LAkt 0.990222601JHGp 
 
26-05-13 02:42 No 99`564 0.20000000 1LFVx 0.495111301FY8V 
 
26-05-13 09:21 No 98`610 0.75000000 1Exrj 1.8459916919Qpa 
 
26-05-13 23:58 No 96`510 1.00000000 1KF1J 2.429988951JHGp 
 
27-05-13 02:47 Yes 96`105 0.00000960 13GEZ 0.000000001PqdG 
 
28-05-13 11:03 Yes 91`473 0.00000400 13GEZ 0.000000001PqdG 
 
28-05-13 18:20 No 90`427 1.00000000 1BzBo 2.339226821M37N 
 
29-05-13 01:51 No 89`346 1.50000000 15mnK 3.484646451WpYe 
 
29-05-13 23:11 No 86`284 1.10000000 1PznN 2.50515177169rH 
 
30-05-13 13:02 Yes 84`294 0.10000000 1E673 0.000000001Ndfd 
 
30-05-13 19:37 No 83`347 0.50000000 1DkRZ 1.116794421CnvR 
 
31-05-13 01:49 No 82`457 1.25850000 1MS2j 2.794259491mcEE 
 
31-05-13 06:11 Yes 81`830 1.00000000 1GyZz 0.00000000158um 
 
02-06-13 09:37 No 74`445 0.04000000 1PoNP 0.084030611C8aD 
 
02-06-13 19:37 Yes 73`008 0.70000000 1M7pd 0.0000000019QXX 
 
03-06-13 05:23 No 71`607 0.08300000 1NQpK 0.170848921PBdc 
 
04-06-13 05:00 No 68`214 0.10000000 1CVsu 0.200779511GMVV 
 
04-06-13 18:39 No 66`255 0.60000000 17BBA 1.1871393719Qpa 
 
04-06-13 19:51 No 66`081 0.09315523 18jGJ 0.184071881Miki 
 
04-06-13 21:10 No 65`893 0.40800000 12kTY 0.805051051Miki 
 
04-06-13 21:57 Yes 65`780 20.00000000 1Gjge 0.00000000176G6 
 
06-06-13 04:05 No 61`453 0.03000000 18cqT 0.057207501HfLu 
 
06-06-13 11:17 Yes 60`419 7.00000000 1EWZ1 0.000000001Ndfd 
 
06-06-13 12:13 Yes 60`285 2.40000000 1Gjge 0.00000000176G6 
 
07-06-13 09:56 No 57`166 0.01006564 1LCw4 0.0185504913d6e 
 
08-06-13 00:29 No 55`077 0.38945100 1Ay7A 0.7056006718iFe 
 
08-06-13 16:05 No 52`837 0.02000000 1HySJ 0.035567211C8aD 
 
10-06-13 20:01 No 45`378 3.00000000 139J3 5.0012035616A6Y 
 
11-06-13 10:08 No 43`351 0.50000000 12m9o 0.818411881LAgs 
 
12-06-13 08:27 No 40`146 0.20000000 1GPFn 0.317800631N7bg 
 
12-06-13 10:50 No 39`802 0.75000000 1H5Zi 1.187902861mcEE 
 
12-06-13 15:23 No 39`149 2.00000000 1QJnK 3.148254631C8aw 
 
13-06-13 13:11 Yes 36`020 4.85000000 181GM 0.00000000158um 
 
13-06-13 20:21 No 34`989 0.80000000 1QJ32 1.209646031CnvR 
 
14-06-13 15:11 Yes 32`286 5.00000000 1DnTD 0.000000001M37N 
 
15-06-13 09:45 No 29`619 0.02300000 1At4u 0.032934471BEku 
 
16-06-13 20:13 No 24`669 1.00000000 1Bgbu 1.358076751mcEE 
 
16-06-13 21:04 No 24`546 1.00000000 178WJ 1.356241511ETQX 
 
17-06-13 08:46 No 22`866 0.01000000 1ENwH 0.013311741Kher 
 
17-06-13 21:17 No 21`069 15.00000000 1LmEt 19.565437871AGhD 
 
17-06-13 22:19 Yes 20`920 0.25000000 1HdzD 0.000000001G8wG 
 
18-06-13 02:40 No 20`295 15.00000000 17vNU 19.39220948158um 
 
18-06-13 23:55 No 17`245 0.15500000 17N2j 0.193332441ETQX 
 
19-06-13 00:19 No 17`188 0.75105230 13sLt 0.936153341mcEE 
 
19-06-13 04:21 No 16`609 0.02000000 1Fsci 0.0247563315Rcz 
 
19-06-13 04:21 No 16`609 20.00000000 15mnK 24.756331261WpYe 
 
19-06-13 05:10 No 16`491 1.50000000 16hB1 1.854083891M2Vq 
 
19-06-13 07:40 No 16`131 0.05000000 1EbS7 0.061534221KnEQ 
 
19-06-13 10:42 No 15`696 20.00000000 15mnK 24.483880761WpYe 
 
19-06-13 14:07 No 15`205 12.00000000 15mnK 14.602416161WpYe 
 
19-06-13 19:07 No 14`486 0.09200000 1LzUE 0.110964881HyTn 
 
20-06-13 05:07 No 13`050 0.06800000 1Q7aE 0.080560551CXVj 
 
20-06-13 05:07 No 13`050 0.10000000 1GwSq 0.118471401CXVj 
 
20-06-13 06:48 No 12`809 0.10000000 1M3f6 0.11811182169dK 
 
20-06-13 12:07 No 12`045 2.69950000 1NSGh 3.1576560517Gp5 
 
20-06-13 15:28 No 11`564 3.00000000 12BAG 3.487626111GMVV 
 
20-06-13 22:43 No 10`524 15.16353195 15mnK 17.392944101WpYe 
 
21-06-13 13:43 No 8`369 0.23105547 1MKWk 0.25759696149FQ 
 
23-06-13 22:12 No 258 0.01966650 1DWFG 0.019545541itod 
 
23-06-13 22:16 Yes 248 0.25000000 14uXF 0.000000001HpVU 
 
DISCUSSION
  • #994: Anonymous 30-05-13 at 23:26
     

    Looking close at the moment…

    #1002: Anonymous 04-06-13 at 19:23
     

    Not close at all, after tomorrow’s adjustment to 15M, there will only be just one more adjustment in June, unless you believe the next adjustment will go directly from 15M to 25M, otherwise this is guaranteed to resolve to “no”

    #1003: Anonymous 04-06-13 at 21:10
     

    Well that’s where you’re wrong, there will be two adjustments clearly. It’s looking increasingly like an easy Yes.

    #1004: Anonymous 04-06-13 at 21:53
     

    See also https://bitbet.us/bet/458/btc-network-difficulty-tops-42-million-by-end/

    #1005: Anonymous 05-06-13 at 00:37
     

    The BTC network has never doubled in difficulty in a 30-day period. BFL hasn’t filled a substantial quantity of it’s orders. The infrastructure isn’t in place to grow the network that fast. Also, it’s summer in the US. Anyone running GPU miners will need to throttle-back or face cost-overruns from cooling. It’ll hit 25mil in July or August, not June.

    #1006: Anonymous 05-06-13 at 01:22
     

    Wow well someone puts their money where their mouth is

    #1007: Anonymous 05-06-13 at 08:14
     

    400% is the cap. 15->60 ftw.

    #1008: Anonymous 05-06-13 at 10:38
     

    In June of 2011, there were three difficulty adjustments. The total difficulty at the end of June 11′ was more than twice the difficulty at the beginning of June 11′. The network has doubled in difficulty, in less than a month, exactly one time. There was a 30% and two 50+% jumps in the month. 12M to 15M is a 25% jump. If each of the two successive jumps are greater than 50%, the network difficulty will double in June.

    #1009: Anonymous 05-06-13 at 10:40
     

    It also doubled in May of 2011.

    #1011: Anonymous 05-06-13 at 17:40
     

    Seems to me even 42% or so will do it.

    #1012: Anonymous 06-06-13 at 00:13
     

    It’s amusing how close most of these difficulty bets turn out to be.

    #1013: Anonymous 06-06-13 at 01:11
     

    Ya cayse when entered theyre luike pfffff never happen.

    #1018: You 09-06-13 at 04:28
     

    Nail-biting.

    #1050: Countdown 16-06-13 at 21:49
     

    Critical time is 2013-06-27 17:32:49.5 UTC. If block #243935 is mined before, Yes will win.

    #1053: Anonymous 17-06-13 at 20:17
     

    If the next adjustment is 24,999,999 on – say – june 28, I expect the bet is resolved to “no”. I hope there is no confusion on that.

    #1054: hmm 18-06-13 at 10:09
     

    its looking close. estimated at 23M at the moment, with just shy of 2 weeks growth / new hardware

    #1079: Countdown 27-06-13 at 18:32
     

    “No” bet wins. There is a very little probability that two adjustments will happen at the rest of June, but hashrate must rise now 5 times minimum.

    #1080: “no” better 27-06-13 at 20:16
     

    Thank’s Countdown for the precise info, it got me confident to bet and earn some satoshis.

    #1081: too_many_late_bets 28-06-13 at 06:37
     

    so many late betters on “no”, the final returns are going to suck

    #1084: name_of_the_game 28-06-13 at 22:09
     

    Like there’s no free lunch, there’s no easy money. It’s the nature of this site. To make serious money on a bet those betting against you either need to spectacularly wrong, or you need a longer lock-out period before determination so that late bets are taking substantial risk and are not just taking from a bet that is essentially known.

    #1087: Anonymous 29-06-13 at 01:36
     

    Weight plays a significant role.