BTC network difficulty tops 25 million by end of June
Bitcoin network difficulty will rise above 25 million by the end of June 2013.
Bet outcome: No
- Category:Bitcoin
- Bet started:1 year 1 month ago (25-05-2013)
- Bet closed: 1 year 2 weeks ago (24-06-2013)
- Resolved: 1 year 1 week ago (01-07-2013)
- Weighted No: 2`891`583
- Weighted Yes: 2`568`923
- Confirmed bets: 63 ( No: 49 / Yes: 14 )
- Histograph:
CONFIRMED BETS: 168.36 BTC
| TIME | BET | WEIGHT | BTC IN | IN | BTC OUT | OUT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25-05-13 23:56 | Yes | 99`961 | 0.03000000 | 19bj3 | 0.00000000 | 1Eteo | |
| 25-05-13 23:56 | No | 99`961 | 0.07000000 | 1Lggo | 0.17370360 | 1F5xm | |
| 25-05-13 23:56 | Yes | 99`961 | 2.00000000 | 1Fj94 | 0.00000000 | 1Eteo | |
| 26-05-13 02:42 | No | 99`564 | 0.40000000 | 1LAkt | 0.99022260 | 1JHGp | |
| 26-05-13 02:42 | No | 99`564 | 0.20000000 | 1LFVx | 0.49511130 | 1FY8V | |
| 26-05-13 09:21 | No | 98`610 | 0.75000000 | 1Exrj | 1.84599169 | 19Qpa | |
| 26-05-13 23:58 | No | 96`510 | 1.00000000 | 1KF1J | 2.42998895 | 1JHGp | |
| 27-05-13 02:47 | Yes | 96`105 | 0.00000960 | 13GEZ | 0.00000000 | 1PqdG | |
| 28-05-13 11:03 | Yes | 91`473 | 0.00000400 | 13GEZ | 0.00000000 | 1PqdG | |
| 28-05-13 18:20 | No | 90`427 | 1.00000000 | 1BzBo | 2.33922682 | 1M37N | |
| 29-05-13 01:51 | No | 89`346 | 1.50000000 | 15mnK | 3.48464645 | 1WpYe | |
| 29-05-13 23:11 | No | 86`284 | 1.10000000 | 1PznN | 2.50515177 | 169rH | |
| 30-05-13 13:02 | Yes | 84`294 | 0.10000000 | 1E673 | 0.00000000 | 1Ndfd | |
| 30-05-13 19:37 | No | 83`347 | 0.50000000 | 1DkRZ | 1.11679442 | 1CnvR | |
| 31-05-13 01:49 | No | 82`457 | 1.25850000 | 1MS2j | 2.79425949 | 1mcEE | |
| 31-05-13 06:11 | Yes | 81`830 | 1.00000000 | 1GyZz | 0.00000000 | 158um | |
| 02-06-13 09:37 | No | 74`445 | 0.04000000 | 1PoNP | 0.08403061 | 1C8aD | |
| 02-06-13 19:37 | Yes | 73`008 | 0.70000000 | 1M7pd | 0.00000000 | 19QXX | |
| 03-06-13 05:23 | No | 71`607 | 0.08300000 | 1NQpK | 0.17084892 | 1PBdc | |
| 04-06-13 05:00 | No | 68`214 | 0.10000000 | 1CVsu | 0.20077951 | 1GMVV | |
| 04-06-13 18:39 | No | 66`255 | 0.60000000 | 17BBA | 1.18713937 | 19Qpa | |
| 04-06-13 19:51 | No | 66`081 | 0.09315523 | 18jGJ | 0.18407188 | 1Miki | |
| 04-06-13 21:10 | No | 65`893 | 0.40800000 | 12kTY | 0.80505105 | 1Miki | |
| 04-06-13 21:57 | Yes | 65`780 | 20.00000000 | 1Gjge | 0.00000000 | 176G6 | |
| 06-06-13 04:05 | No | 61`453 | 0.03000000 | 18cqT | 0.05720750 | 1HfLu | |
| 06-06-13 11:17 | Yes | 60`419 | 7.00000000 | 1EWZ1 | 0.00000000 | 1Ndfd | |
| 06-06-13 12:13 | Yes | 60`285 | 2.40000000 | 1Gjge | 0.00000000 | 176G6 | |
| 07-06-13 09:56 | No | 57`166 | 0.01006564 | 1LCw4 | 0.01855049 | 13d6e | |
| 08-06-13 00:29 | No | 55`077 | 0.38945100 | 1Ay7A | 0.70560067 | 18iFe | |
| 08-06-13 16:05 | No | 52`837 | 0.02000000 | 1HySJ | 0.03556721 | 1C8aD | |
| 10-06-13 20:01 | No | 45`378 | 3.00000000 | 139J3 | 5.00120356 | 16A6Y | |
| 11-06-13 10:08 | No | 43`351 | 0.50000000 | 12m9o | 0.81841188 | 1LAgs | |
| 12-06-13 08:27 | No | 40`146 | 0.20000000 | 1GPFn | 0.31780063 | 1N7bg | |
| 12-06-13 10:50 | No | 39`802 | 0.75000000 | 1H5Zi | 1.18790286 | 1mcEE | |
| 12-06-13 15:23 | No | 39`149 | 2.00000000 | 1QJnK | 3.14825463 | 1C8aw | |
| 13-06-13 13:11 | Yes | 36`020 | 4.85000000 | 181GM | 0.00000000 | 158um | |
| 13-06-13 20:21 | No | 34`989 | 0.80000000 | 1QJ32 | 1.20964603 | 1CnvR | |
| 14-06-13 15:11 | Yes | 32`286 | 5.00000000 | 1DnTD | 0.00000000 | 1M37N | |
| 15-06-13 09:45 | No | 29`619 | 0.02300000 | 1At4u | 0.03293447 | 1BEku | |
| 16-06-13 20:13 | No | 24`669 | 1.00000000 | 1Bgbu | 1.35807675 | 1mcEE | |
| 16-06-13 21:04 | No | 24`546 | 1.00000000 | 178WJ | 1.35624151 | 1ETQX | |
| 17-06-13 08:46 | No | 22`866 | 0.01000000 | 1ENwH | 0.01331174 | 1Kher | |
| 17-06-13 21:17 | No | 21`069 | 15.00000000 | 1LmEt | 19.56543787 | 1AGhD | |
| 17-06-13 22:19 | Yes | 20`920 | 0.25000000 | 1HdzD | 0.00000000 | 1G8wG | |
| 18-06-13 02:40 | No | 20`295 | 15.00000000 | 17vNU | 19.39220948 | 158um | |
| 18-06-13 23:55 | No | 17`245 | 0.15500000 | 17N2j | 0.19333244 | 1ETQX | |
| 19-06-13 00:19 | No | 17`188 | 0.75105230 | 13sLt | 0.93615334 | 1mcEE | |
| 19-06-13 04:21 | No | 16`609 | 0.02000000 | 1Fsci | 0.02475633 | 15Rcz | |
| 19-06-13 04:21 | No | 16`609 | 20.00000000 | 15mnK | 24.75633126 | 1WpYe | |
| 19-06-13 05:10 | No | 16`491 | 1.50000000 | 16hB1 | 1.85408389 | 1M2Vq | |
| 19-06-13 07:40 | No | 16`131 | 0.05000000 | 1EbS7 | 0.06153422 | 1KnEQ | |
| 19-06-13 10:42 | No | 15`696 | 20.00000000 | 15mnK | 24.48388076 | 1WpYe | |
| 19-06-13 14:07 | No | 15`205 | 12.00000000 | 15mnK | 14.60241616 | 1WpYe | |
| 19-06-13 19:07 | No | 14`486 | 0.09200000 | 1LzUE | 0.11096488 | 1HyTn | |
| 20-06-13 05:07 | No | 13`050 | 0.06800000 | 1Q7aE | 0.08056055 | 1CXVj | |
| 20-06-13 05:07 | No | 13`050 | 0.10000000 | 1GwSq | 0.11847140 | 1CXVj | |
| 20-06-13 06:48 | No | 12`809 | 0.10000000 | 1M3f6 | 0.11811182 | 169dK | |
| 20-06-13 12:07 | No | 12`045 | 2.69950000 | 1NSGh | 3.15765605 | 17Gp5 | |
| 20-06-13 15:28 | No | 11`564 | 3.00000000 | 12BAG | 3.48762611 | 1GMVV | |
| 20-06-13 22:43 | No | 10`524 | 15.16353195 | 15mnK | 17.39294410 | 1WpYe | |
| 21-06-13 13:43 | No | 8`369 | 0.23105547 | 1MKWk | 0.25759696 | 149FQ | |
| 23-06-13 22:12 | No | 258 | 0.01966650 | 1DWFG | 0.01954554 | 1itod | |
| 23-06-13 22:16 | Yes | 248 | 0.25000000 | 14uXF | 0.00000000 | 1HpVU |
DISCUSSION
#994: Anonymous 30-05-13 at 23:26
Looking close at the moment…
#1002: Anonymous 04-06-13 at 19:23
Not close at all, after tomorrow’s adjustment to 15M, there will only be just one more adjustment in June, unless you believe the next adjustment will go directly from 15M to 25M, otherwise this is guaranteed to resolve to "no"
#1003: Anonymous 04-06-13 at 21:10
Well that’s where you’re wrong, there will be two adjustments clearly. It’s looking increasingly like an easy Yes.
#1004: Anonymous 04-06-13 at 21:53
See also https://bitbet.us/bet/458/btc-network-difficulty-tops-42-million-by-end/
#1005: Anonymous 05-06-13 at 00:37
The BTC network has never doubled in difficulty in a 30-day period. BFL hasn’t filled a substantial quantity of it’s orders. The infrastructure isn’t in place to grow the network that fast. Also, it’s summer in the US. Anyone running GPU miners will need to throttle-back or face cost-overruns from cooling. It’ll hit 25mil in July or August, not June.
#1006: Anonymous 05-06-13 at 01:22
Wow well someone puts their money where their mouth is
#1007: Anonymous 05-06-13 at 08:14
400% is the cap. 15->60 ftw.
#1008: Anonymous 05-06-13 at 10:38
In June of 2011, there were three difficulty adjustments. The total difficulty at the end of June 11′ was more than twice the difficulty at the beginning of June 11′. The network has doubled in difficulty, in less than a month, exactly one time. There was a 30% and two 50+% jumps in the month. 12M to 15M is a 25% jump. If each of the two successive jumps are greater than 50%, the network difficulty will double in June.
#1009: Anonymous 05-06-13 at 10:40
It also doubled in May of 2011.
#1011: Anonymous 05-06-13 at 17:40
Seems to me even 42% or so will do it.
#1012: Anonymous 06-06-13 at 00:13
It’s amusing how close most of these difficulty bets turn out to be.
#1013: Anonymous 06-06-13 at 01:11
Ya cayse when entered theyre luike pfffff never happen.
#1018: You 09-06-13 at 04:28
Nail-biting.
#1050: Countdown 16-06-13 at 21:49
Critical time is 2013-06-27 17:32:49.5 UTC. If block #243935 is mined before, Yes will win.
#1053: Anonymous 17-06-13 at 20:17
If the next adjustment is 24,999,999 on – say – june 28, I expect the bet is resolved to "no". I hope there is no confusion on that.
#1054: hmm 18-06-13 at 10:09
its looking close. estimated at 23M at the moment, with just shy of 2 weeks growth / new hardware
#1079: Countdown 27-06-13 at 18:32
"No" bet wins. There is a very little probability that two adjustments will happen at the rest of June, but hashrate must rise now 5 times minimum.
#1080: "no" better 27-06-13 at 20:16
Thank’s Countdown for the precise info, it got me confident to bet and earn some satoshis.
#1081: too_many_late_bets 28-06-13 at 06:37
so many late betters on "no", the final returns are going to suck
#1084: name_of_the_game 28-06-13 at 22:09
Like there’s no free lunch, there’s no easy money. It’s the nature of this site. To make serious money on a bet those betting against you either need to spectacularly wrong, or you need a longer lock-out period before determination so that late bets are taking substantial risk and are not just taking from a bet that is essentially known.
#1087: Anonymous 29-06-13 at 01:36
Weight plays a significant role.