BTC network difficulty tops 10 million by end of April
Bitcoin network difficulty will rise above 10 million by the end of April 2013.
Bet outcome: Yes
- Bet started:1 year 8 months ago (26-03-2013)
- Bet closed: 1 year 7 months ago (25-04-2013)
- Resolved: 1 year 7 months ago (01-05-2013)
- Weighted No: 2`372`758
- Weighted Yes: 5`116`522
- Confirmed bets: 76 ( No: 45 / Yes: 31 )
CONFIRMED BETS: 138.29 BTC
|TIME||BET||WEIGHT||BTC IN||IN||BTC OUT||OUT|
#534: Anonymous 03-04-13 at 14:38
Although the difficulty is below 10M right now, I feel it will definitely go up shortly. Because: 1. asicminer is deploying 50TH very soon. 2. BFL is shipping next week. 3. avalon asic is shipping 2nd batch. We will see additional 50TH at minimum by April 15ths
#535: Anonymous 03-04-13 at 17:51
Asicminer hasn’t even deployed the 12 TH it was deploying in January. For all you know their chips are shit.
#536: Anonymous 03-04-13 at 20:31
ASICMiner has only promised those parts by the end of the month — too late.
BFL only just got a prototype working — it typically takes a month to ramp up.
Avalon asic is not shipping until the middle of the month, and it takes about a week for it to get out of china.
Finally, the block hash difficulty is only updated every two weeks or so.
So most of this capacity will be too late to affect the difficulty.
#547: Anonymous 04-04-13 at 18:26
Right now mining Bitcoins is insanely profitable even with GPU, so people will just buy GPU and mine. GPUs are readily available, difficulty will easily go up to 10M on the next adjustment, plus even if we don’t get 10M on next, we will definitely get there on the 3rd adjustment, which would still be in April.
#559: Anonymous 05-04-13 at 19:59
The third adjustment is not guaranteed. It requires an acceleration of the two weeks that is likely not to happen at current rates.
#560: Anonymous 05-04-13 at 21:28
um no, the third adjustment is practically guaranteed. Under normal circumstances, yes it would fall on May 2nd, but since we are expecting huge amount of hardware coming on line (especially given the current price rally), the adjustment time will be accelerated due to faster block solving. It is practically guaranteed 3rd adjustment will be before April ends.
#561: Anonymous 06-04-13 at 00:40
Guaranteed is a very strong term. The difficulty rating has been reset to 7.67M, and 25 TH of GPUs is dropping rapidly. You can see it happening on deepbit, which has dropped below 2 TH/s hashrate. The price rally is over. The new round of ASICs will not be delivered soon enough to offset the drop in GPUs. By all means, bet "YES", I will happily take your BTC.
#562: Anonymous 06-04-13 at 00:53
Well if you are mining on deepbit, then that is your problem, deepbit is losing miners constantly, so if you go by deepbit stats, you would be pretty wrong. If we are losing hashrate, how come the difficulty just jumped from 6.7M to 7.7M? and is expected to rise further?
#566: Anonymous 06-04-13 at 10:49
"we" are expecting? When did that happen?
#567: Anonymous 06-04-13 at 14:42
every difficulty prediction site has the next difficulty rate more than the current one, so yes it’s rising.
#568: Anonymous 06-04-13 at 19:46
The point is that there are 25 GH of GPU hashing going on, and that even as ASIC hashing increases, the GPU hashing will go down and offset. 6.7M to 7.7M in 2 weeks is a very slow improvement and at that rate, it will not reach 10M in 3 weeks.
#571: Anonymous 07-04-13 at 02:22
The only reason the difficulty didn’t rise fast, is because there is a boom in altcoins. There are 6TH equivalent of hashing power hashing away at LTC alone, that figure was 0.5TH just 1 month ago. The altcoin boom is a fad, that will die down soon, and hashing power will be coming back to BTC.
#572: Anonymous 07-04-13 at 03:07
oh and why are you not betting a lot BTC on "no" if you are sure we won’t reach 10M difficulty this month? huh? put your BTC where your mouth is please. My "yes" bets needs more counter party.
#573: Anonymous 07-04-13 at 05:52
Altcoin is booming precisely because folks are moving their
GPUs away from bitcoin mining.
A bunch of folks that the ASICminer ramp was happening, but it’s not. They had a spare .5 TH, which they have put into play, but now they are stuck at 7 TH.
#580: Anonymous 07-04-13 at 13:46
No need to argue more, right now there are 3X more BTC on "yes". So if you truly believe in "no", make it even, put your BTC on the "no" bet and make yourself a lot of money if you believe your theory is true.
#581: Anonymous 07-04-13 at 13:49
Just a heads up, at the current TH, if there are zero new hardware coming in, next difficulty will be 8.7M on April 16th.
#586: Anonymous 07-04-13 at 18:07
Actually, it wouldn’t be April 16th. It will be April 18th.
If there were zero new hardware coming in, then it would stay at 8.7M, and the next date would be May 02. In order for this bet to resolve "YES", we would need a massive influx of hash power in the next few days to accelerate the time clock.
It seems like all three ASIC vendors are about to do this. And yet, if Avalon were shipping on time, we would be seeing a massive ramp from them testing. ASICMiner has not gone up. And BFL has no record of delivering on-time.
#591: Anonymous 08-04-13 at 02:21
Yes, May 2nd is the 3rd difficulty change, but ONLY if from now to May 2nd, there’s ZERO new hardware coming in. If you believe that with the price running up to nearly $200 right now, that there would be ZERO new hardware coming in, then by all means vote "yes".
#593: Anonymous 08-04-13 at 07:26
Bitcoin difficulty at this stage is purely a matter of whether ASICs are adopted in the next week. Nobody’s going to run out and buy GPUs when they know in a month or two the hashrate is going to triple. This bet is just about whether the full brunt of the ASICs is going to be felt in the next two weeks. I say no.
#602: Anonymous 08-04-13 at 15:57
You are looking at things in a rather static way. Right now you can recoup your investment on your GPU in 1 month if you are on free electricity. Why wouldn’t they use GPU? Especially with the BTC price ever increasing, and difficulty is lagging price action. I know for a fact people are buying GPU to mine, just take a look at eBay’s used GPU market, the prices has increased nearly 50% from what they were going for 2 months ago.
#604: Anonymous 08-04-13 at 18:02
BFL has announced they aren’t shipping until end of April. So they are out. ASICminer is stuck trying to get its data center straightened out. And Avalon does not start shipping until the middle of the month. Things are looking grim for this one.
#621: Anonymous 09-04-13 at 13:47
Avalon 2nd batch already shipped partially, people will be receiving them as of now, just that the remaining are shipping mid April.
ASICminer is on track to have 50TH by mid April.
GPUs are continue to be bought in numbers(check out ebay GPU prices), also hashes are coming back to BTC as the altcoin fad fade.
BFL… well that’s just BFL
#622: Anonymous 09-04-13 at 13:56
btw, in the link you posted: http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php it is already estimating the next difficulty to be over 10M
#625: Anonymous 09-04-13 at 19:10
Not anymore. That link oscillates wildly. Wait 12 hours and see where it at.
#626: Anonymous 09-04-13 at 19:12
OMG — there are absolutely no indications that ASICminer is on track. They’ve gone up by only 1 TH in the last two weeks. Avalon hasn’t shipped any batch 2 machines.
#628: Anonymous 09-04-13 at 23:05
1TH past two weeks, 2.5 TH past two months.
#641: Anonymous 10-04-13 at 16:23
The link both says April 16th and also 9.8M right now, so it’s hovering around 10M basically. http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php
#642: Anonymous 10-04-13 at 16:26
Just so it’s clear, we are expected to adjust to at least 9.8M difficulty ,if not 10M+ on April 16th. AND there’s another adjustment, likely just before April 30th, so this bet is basically guaranteed to resolve to "yes".
#651: Anonymous 11-04-13 at 08:53
only if the next adjustment is >1.1, otherwise, it wont happen until after midnight – e.g. the first
#652: Anonymous 11-04-13 at 14:37
lol, then keep betting on "no" please, very nice 1 BTC bet on "no", need more "no" bets so I can make more on my "yes" bet.
#653: Anonymous 11-04-13 at 17:05
The reddit update from BFL says they’re not even close. Still no word from ASICminer — their supposed 50 TH rampup is still stalled.
The next difficulty prediction algorithm is overly optimistic. There were many times during the previous two weeks where it reported that the difficulty would be updated to 8.6 GH, and it ended up being 7.6 GH.
#659: Anonymous 12-04-13 at 16:15
Asicminer reports that they are delayed until 22nd before they start ramping up. BFL is out as well. It’s looking more and more "no" on this one.
#678: PFaction 17-04-13 at 09:05
#680: Anonymous 17-04-13 at 13:25
lolol what delay? ASICMiner is even selling miners through forum auction because they have so much of them they are running out of room. It’s just a matter of finding space to put them and turn them on. 9M difficulty right now, next adjustment is basically guarnateed to be 10M+, and it will come before April 30th, guaranteed.
#682: Anonymous 17-04-13 at 18:27
Difficulty updated to over 11M at block 231840
All bets are valid up to "16-04-13 16:13"
#683: Anonymous 17-04-13 at 18:42
Correction, I am an idiot. Reading next estimate.
#687: Anonymous 18-04-13 at 04:36
ASICMiner is only selling Quantity 10 10 GH systems. So that’s .1 TH — irrelevant. The reason they are doing this is because they are not able to ramp up because of power issues in their new facility. They cite 22nd as the earliest time to start adding capacity.
#688: Anonymous 18-04-13 at 09:42
That’s a big bet for yes, almost tempted to take the no side now.
#690: Anonymous 18-04-13 at 12:34
10×10 GH is 100 GH, not 1 TH.
#691: Anonymous 18-04-13 at 15:12
and 22nd is still April dude, additional 12TH will make a huge difference, it will make the difficulty go up 20% minimum and also adjustment arrive faster, probably April 28th or 29th the latest.
#692: Anonymous 18-04-13 at 15:14
Please bet on "no", like I said before, I need more counter party for my "yes" bets. There’s no need to argue with me, if you believe in "no", you bet on "no", I bet on "yes" with big money because I bet where my mouth is.
#693: Anonymous 18-04-13 at 19:08
The problem is, if the increase in capacity only STARTS on 22nd, then it has to actually say above 11,000,000 to result in an average difficulty of 10,000,000 for the time period. That’s an extremely large amount of capacity to add in the span of a week.
#694: Anonymous 18-04-13 at 19:12
Yeah, I agree. With BFL basically doing what it always does, we cannot expect anything from them. Avalon says it’s begun shipping Batch #2, but nobody is reporting receiving them. And ASICMiner is not starting until after April 22nd, and over their entire 2 month period of having ASICs, they’ve never ramped above 7 TH. Even during peaking ramping, they took two weeks to hit 6 TH. The "No" bets are going to make a killing on this one.
#695: Anonymous 18-04-13 at 19:15
Only 143 blocks mined in the last 24 hours. They need to be above 160 consistently in order to make this bet work. Poop.
#699: Anonymous 19-04-13 at 13:45
You know what variance means? one day it’s 143, the next it might be 180, it’s the average that counts stupid! that’s why difficulty is adjusted over 2016 blocks, not 144. Just bet on "no" already, why aren’t you making the big money bets on "no" if you believe what you are saying?
#705: Anonymous 19-04-13 at 18:27
The No’s are finally figuring it out, and their bets are coming in. This one is not going to happen. Over the last day, it has been at 122 blocks per day, far below the 160 average that is needed.
#706: Anonymous 19-04-13 at 20:01
lolol I think you are forgetting that ASICMiner is bringing online 12TH on April 22nd, confirmed. Plus all the other hardware that possibly coming online, maybe BFL will mine internally to test, who knows.
#708: Anonymous 19-04-13 at 20:53
Nothing is confirmed. They haven’t offered an update in weeks on the 22nd batch. And they said nothing about 12 TH. They only said that they were going to start ramping. If Avalon delivers, then this may have chance of being Yes. But it’s not looking good.
#709: Anonymous 19-04-13 at 20:55
I pity the person that bet 36.4 BTC at last minute. They are putting $3600 at risk for $500 payoff.
#710: Anonymous 19-04-13 at 21:24
That’s because the $3600 person didn’t fail at math, why not make $500 if it’s virtually guaranteed? It’s the same reason your ass isn’t putting shit on "no" bet, even though the payout is excellent if you win, because you know the "no" bet isn’t winning.
#711: Anonymous 20-04-13 at 00:12
Well, it’s not virtually guaranteed. And that person knows it now and is worried.
#725: Anonymous 21-04-13 at 16:46
lolol, BFL delivers first ASIC device, unboxing video here: http://youtu.be/_6mmTRheUzg Where’s your god now "no" betters?
#726: Anonymous 21-04-13 at 19:07
That’s a review unit, and as of writing this, the only unit that’s known to have been delivered so far.
#727: Anonymous 21-04-13 at 19:47
BFL is completely out of the picture. They aren’t shipping well into May. Avalon says they are shipping, but nobody has reported anything. ASICminer is still locked in at 7 GH on BTCGuild.
#728: Anonymous 21-04-13 at 19:49
The no’s are going to have it. The payout is going to be pretty sweet for them, as well…
#729: Anonymous 21-04-13 at 20:53
Sure, BFL might not be shipping, but will they be "test mining" with their shiny asic miners? I would think "yes"
#730: Anonymous 22-04-13 at 01:02
BFL would need thousands of Jalapeno’s to make this bet come true.
#732: Anonymous 22-04-13 at 18:31
Why wouldn’t they have thousands? they took tens of thousands of pre-orders. They better have thousands if they expecting to ship soon.
#735: Anonymous 22-04-13 at 23:31
I’m not sure BFL deserves the benefit of the doubt in this case. The number of pre-orders has nothing to do with whether they can go from 4 units to 1000 units in the matter of a week. Meanwhile ASICminer still hasn’t ramped, and it’s the 23rd in China. The No’s are going to clean house on this one.
#742: Anonymous 23-04-13 at 13:53
Can you read? http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php
#744: Anonymous 23-04-13 at 15:57
9’997’037.62 is what the site’s telling me.
Can’t you read or what?
#745: Anonymous 23-04-13 at 16:13
This one is gonna be close!
Wouldn’t it be funny if next difficulty was 9,999,999.
#746: Anonymous 23-04-13 at 16:39
That site varies a lot. But it predicts under more than over. Right now it’s at 9’753’887.
Yeah, this one is very close. A lot closer than I thought it was going to be at the beginning.
If you’re going to bet, you might as well put it on the side with the largest payout.
#747: Anonymous 23-04-13 at 20:08
ASICminer hasn’t ramped? how do you know? they already said they won’t be mining on BTCGuild since it is nearly 50% of network. I think they are ramping as we speak.
#749: Anonymous 23-04-13 at 22:09
Because if they were ramping with 60 GH, we would have seen a significant rise in the global hash rate. But nothing like that has manifested. Furthermore, friedcat has not given any update that indicates that it actually has started — he’s only said that it will start.
#751: Napa 24-04-13 at 00:01
Let’s forget about the ASICs for a second. Any chance this will go over without them? And I might be reading this wrong but dot-bit.org seems to say the difficulty is already 10,319,895.
But I’m doubting I’m reading this is right because bitcoinwatch.com thinks it is only 8,974,296.
#756: Anonymous 24-04-13 at 00:42
Right now it is 8,974,296 until the remaining blocks for the difficulty period run out. Little over 1000 blocks right now.
The 10,319,296 number you saw is just a projection. If you refresh every few hours you will notice it changes depending on how fast the remaining blocks are being solved.
#760: Anonymous 24-04-13 at 01:48
This is gonna be damn close.
#761: Anonymous 24-04-13 at 02:28
It looks close now, but realize there’s 7 days left in the month. Any minor addition of hardware, or even just dumb luck, will push difficulty to 10M. Btw ASICMiner just shipped 150GH equivalent of asic hardware to customers, who are probably now mining with them.
#763: Anonymous 24-04-13 at 07:02
Well, les jeux sont faits! I wish you all luck — it’s been fun. We need an average difficulty of 10.155 M. But Avalon, BFL, and AsicMiner have all struck out. I think this one is going to come down just to the uptime that existing GPU, FPGA, and ASIC miners are putting in.
#767: Stickeen 24-04-13 at 18:49
I wonder if ASICMiner ever did start using that 12TH. I’m not sure how to check.
Few hours left lovelies.
#789: Anonymous 25-04-13 at 17:29
Ughh.. this one is slipping further and further away.
#790: Anonymous 25-04-13 at 19:46
ASICMiner deployment confirmed lolol, now up to nearly 8 TH on BTCGuild alone.
#791: Anonymous 25-04-13 at 19:56
At least bitcoinwatch.com still thinks the next difficulty will be 9,525,866.
Maybe, dot-bit.org’s 10’077’709.22 is more of an overestimate.
#798: Anonymous 26-04-13 at 03:29
lolol http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php predicts next diff change at 29th for 10.5M, ASICMiner deployments is showing its power, where’s your god now "no" bets?
#800: Anonymous 26-04-13 at 11:44
It’ll be close.
#803: Anonymous 26-04-13 at 19:47
Yeah, it will be close. The average will be above 10M. But the oscillation around 10M is large enough that the bet could be lost.
#813: Anonymous 28-04-13 at 03:23
#814: Anonymous 28-04-13 at 04:19
I am not betting on this one again! Too much drama.
#817: Anonymous 28-04-13 at 14:27
PPC and TRC are drawing hashpower away from BTC.
#820: Anonymous 29-04-13 at 08:05
ASICMiner up to 8.5 GH
#825: M3t 29-04-13 at 18:07
#827: Anonymous 29-04-13 at 19:47
Told you so, 10M+ guaranteed. "no" bets are guaranteed loss.
#828: Anonymous 29-04-13 at 19:55
Not guaranteed, but very likely this will go to "YES". I predict new difficulty will be 10.1M, less than 8 hours from now.
#833: Anonymous 30-04-13 at 03:36
Any other "no" betters neglecting to mine in order to raise their favor?
#834: Anonymous 30-04-13 at 05:37
Congrats to the winners! Difficulty is now > 10M.
#837: Anonymous 30-04-13 at 06:23
#839: Anonymous 30-04-13 at 13:14
This should be resolved to "yes" now.
#843: Chinny 30-04-13 at 16:45
Lost, and I bet the farm. But it feels a little better giving my coins to other gamblers than to a more widely distributed machine.
#844: Anonymous 30-04-13 at 16:56
Sorry, Chinny! It was a close one. 30 day bet, and it was two hours from resolving to "no". That’s a .27% margin.