0.77 BTC
0.58 BTC

BitPay will succeed before Q2 2015

Like all start-ups, BitPay has to juggle investment, revenue and burn rate. Also like all start-ups, it can either be acquired within 3 years or go nowhere.

This bet resolves as Yes if BitPay is acquired by an established player before Q2 2015 (shareholder or employer cartels and other ad-hoc abominations specifically excluded). For the unlikely case BitPay actually manages to matter on its own, this bet also resolves as Yes if BitPay reports 2014 after-tax revenue in excess of $10 million (Buffett’s criteria).

This bet resolves as No otherwise.

  • Category:Bitcoin
  • Bet started:8 months 3 weeks ago (13-04-2014)
  • Bet closing: in 4 days 2 hours (10-01-2015)
  • Resolution: in 2 months 4 weeks (05-04-2015)
  • Weighted No: 76`997
  • Weighted Yes: 56`336
  • Current weight: 1`512 ( from 100`000 to 1 )
  • Confirmed bets: 8 ( No: 2  /  Yes: 6 )
  • Histograph: Histograph
  • Calculator:
    placing a winning BTC bet on:

    Yes pays:   BTC
    No pays:   BTC
    after fees, at current weight and assuming no one else bets
CONFIRMED BETS: 1.35 BTC
TIME BET WEIGHT BTC IN IN BTC OUT OUT  
13-04-14 23:45 Yes 100`000 0.03000000 17FXV / 1K4Fs
13-04-14 23:45 No 100`000 0.07000000 17FxN / 19YgU
14-04-14 00:02 No 99`996 0.70000000 17fxX / 18bCN
14-04-14 00:14 Yes 99`993 0.30000000 17FXY / 18bCN
14-04-14 02:50 Yes 99`953 0.11111111 17Fyh / 15MB4
22-04-14 21:54 Yes 96`708 0.03300000 17J45 / 1NfXM
21-05-14 22:22 Yes 86`000 0.01000000 17RiN / 15eJw
02-06-14 06:59 Yes 81`808 0.10000000 17TWv / 1KMx1
DISCUSSION