BitPay will succeed before Q2 2015
Like all start-ups, BitPay has to juggle investment, revenue and burn rate. Also like all start-ups, it can either be acquired within 3 years or go nowhere.
This bet resolves as Yes if BitPay is acquired by an established player before Q2 2015 (shareholder or employer cartels and other ad-hoc abominations specifically excluded). For the unlikely case BitPay actually manages to matter on its own, this bet also resolves as Yes if BitPay reports 2014 after-tax revenue in excess of $10 million (Buffett’s criteria).
This bet resolves as No otherwise.
- Category:Bitcoin
- Bet started:8 months 3 weeks ago (13-04-2014)
- Bet closing: in 4 days 2 hours (10-01-2015)
- Resolution: in 2 months 4 weeks (05-04-2015)
- Weighted No: 76`997
- Weighted Yes: 56`336
- Current weight: 1`512 ( from 100`000 to 1 )
- Confirmed bets: 8 ( No: 2 / Yes: 6 )
- Histograph:
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Calculator:
placing a winning BTC bet on:
Yes pays: BTC
No pays: BTC
after fees, at current weight and assuming no one else bets
CONFIRMED BETS: 1.35 BTC
TIME | BET | WEIGHT | BTC IN | IN | BTC OUT | OUT | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13-04-14 23:45 | Yes | 100`000 | 0.03000000 | 17FXV | / | 1K4Fs | |
13-04-14 23:45 | No | 100`000 | 0.07000000 | 17FxN | / | 19YgU | |
14-04-14 00:02 | No | 99`996 | 0.70000000 | 17fxX | / | 18bCN | |
14-04-14 00:14 | Yes | 99`993 | 0.30000000 | 17FXY | / | 18bCN | |
14-04-14 02:50 | Yes | 99`953 | 0.11111111 | 17Fyh | / | 15MB4 | |
22-04-14 21:54 | Yes | 96`708 | 0.03300000 | 17J45 | / | 1NfXM | |
21-05-14 22:22 | Yes | 86`000 | 0.01000000 | 17RiN | / | 15eJw | |
02-06-14 06:59 | Yes | 81`808 | 0.10000000 | 17TWv | / | 1KMx1 |
DISCUSSION
#2773: Anonymous 14-04-14 at 00:02
Actually it’s 21 months. http://ycuniverse.com/longevity-of-yc-startups-from-funding-through-acquisition
#2774: Anonymous 14-04-14 at 00:34
http://www.crunchbase.com/company/bitpay
Not so much activity since 09/13