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Bitcoin network difficulty > 14Bn on Bastille day

The bet resolves to Yes if the Bitcoin network difficulty is equal to or greater than 14 billion on or before July 14, 2014.

Bet outcome: Yes
  • Category:Bitcoin
  • Bet started:7 months 1 week ago (23-12-2013)
  • Bet closed: 1 month 2 weeks ago (14-06-2014)
  • Resolved: 4 weeks 1 day ago (03-07-2014)
  • Weighted No: 678`305
  • Weighted Yes: 2`937`087
  • Confirmed bets: 57 ( No: 25  /  Yes: 32 )
  • Histograph: Histograph
CONFIRMED BETS: 132.93 BTC
TIME BET WEIGHT BTC IN IN BTC OUT OUT
23-12-13 15:19 Yes 99`976 1.10000000 14aSn 1.822081631NfXM 
 
23-12-13 15:34 Yes 99`970 0.04000000 14aSK 0.066255911K4Fs 
 
23-12-13 15:34 No 99`970 0.06000000 14arv 0.000000001F5xm 
 
25-12-13 00:04 No 99`184 3.00000000 14bmu 0.000000001K4Fs 
 
25-12-13 03:45 Yes 99`096 1.47147147 14bNP 2.428769301Jkub 
 
04-01-14 11:23 Yes 93`110 0.10000000 14gRt 0.1610669213GJN 
 
04-01-14 14:41 Yes 93`031 0.10000000 14gSo 0.1610142613GJN 
 
04-01-14 15:02 Yes 93`022 0.02105100 14GV6 0.033893841Avwr 
 
06-01-14 00:15 Yes 92`219 0.25000000 14HVE 0.4011824619qRz 
 
11-01-14 21:07 Yes 88`815 0.10000000 14kvX 0.158203881CLqw 
 
12-01-14 10:50 No 88`484 0.02000000 14L9E 0.000000001MA74 
 
12-01-14 16:12 Yes 88`354 2.00000000 14Lni 3.157931701Mt79 
 
12-01-14 23:02 Yes 88`189 1.00000000 14m11 1.577865961KeQ1 
 
14-01-14 15:28 Yes 87`211 1.80000000 14mSd 2.828423951CW5K 
 
15-01-14 15:23 Yes 86`633 0.10000000 14ncJ 0.1567493713GJN 
 
19-01-14 20:55 No 84`180 1.30000000 14ozQ 0.000000001K4Fs 
 
23-01-14 16:37 Yes 81`963 0.38948990 14q1z 0.598398091Mt79 
 
23-01-14 17:16 Yes 81`948 1.00000000 14q1z 1.536263591Mt79 
 
24-01-14 20:16 Yes 81`295 5.00000000 14WQP 7.6595535512S27 
 
03-02-14 02:01 No 75`936 0.10000000 16E3o 0.0000000012MF2 
 
09-02-14 06:02 No 72`359 0.05000000 16Gp8 0.000000001BEuc 
 
23-02-14 08:27 Yes 64`180 2.00000000 16kWZ 2.83564498154BD 
 
25-02-14 20:38 No 62`725 0.10000000 16mgt 0.000000001PNTt 
 
01-03-14 17:23 Yes 60`484 1.00000000 16oUV 1.3931850319zbT 
 
06-03-14 11:10 Yes 57`734 0.02500000 16RCb 0.0343713319EQB 
 
12-03-14 05:13 No 54`397 0.50000000 16sRW 0.000000001JgXB 
 
01-04-14 05:58 Yes 42`779 3.20000000 17Cdh 4.080524441NA7t 
 
04-04-14 05:03 Yes 41`061 1.59990000 17CzH 2.021812401Q9Q6 
 
07-04-14 13:43 Yes 39`111 0.12486932 17dZb 0.156175691BnyJ 
 
13-04-14 14:39 No 35`608 0.10000000 17FUv 0.000000001NfXM 
 
17-04-14 19:45 Yes 33`165 0.05554772 17Ha5 0.0672725714S3m 
 
18-04-14 02:12 Yes 33`009 4.00000000 17hfk 4.840149121Q9Q6 
 
03-05-14 22:45 Yes 23`812 1.71500000 17mzq 1.970072421BJeT 
 
06-05-14 01:19 No 22`590 3.00000000 17niW 0.0000000012NZX 
 
12-05-14 12:04 Yes 18`850 1.90000000 17p1Z 2.119742011JfVm 
 
13-05-14 08:40 No 18`352 1.14835172 17p8t 0.000000001CKii 
 
14-05-14 07:31 No 17`800 1.00090000 17pGx 0.000000001Etne 
 
15-05-14 07:30 No 17`220 1.00000000 17pQE 0.000000001JhNL 
 
16-05-14 18:49 No 16`367 1.00000000 17pTt 0.000000001PzuS 
 
19-05-14 23:27 Yes 14`514 10.00000000 17qVe 10.867500101DuvY 
 
22-05-14 05:28 Yes 13`209 50.00000000 17qVe 53.902545411DuvY 
 
23-05-14 04:16 No 12`658 1.14658359 17rUg 0.0000000016AB9 
 
25-05-14 03:08 Yes 11`525 22.50000000 17s6y 24.003571511APhU 
 
25-05-14 08:37 No 11`393 1.00000000 17s9C 0.000000001sz9w 
 
26-05-14 09:28 No 10`792 1.00000000 17s9C 0.000000001sz9w 
 
27-05-14 11:58 No 10`152 1.00000000 17s9C 0.000000001sz9w 
 
27-05-14 18:01 No 10`005 1.00000000 17s9C 0.000000001sz9w 
 
29-05-14 11:46 No 8`997 1.00000000 17s9C 0.000000001sz9w 
 
29-05-14 17:30 No 8`858 1.00000000 17s9C 0.000000001sz9w 
 
03-06-14 14:17 No 6`036 0.02470000 17U4Y 0.00000000173oS 
 
09-06-14 17:19 Yes 2`482 0.25000000 17w7R 0.251636231BxKb 
 
11-06-14 06:30 No 1`583 0.02500000 17s9C 0.000000001sz9w 
 
11-06-14 11:18 No 1`467 0.10078847 17s9C 0.000000001sz9w 
 
12-06-14 20:04 Yes 676 0.05000000 17yzW 0.049725311669M 
 
13-06-14 00:49 Yes 560 0.05010000 17ZdD 0.049786021JGeB 
 
13-06-14 18:27 Yes 134 0.22000000 17zUp 0.21799651194Gd 
 
13-06-14 18:27 No 134 0.10000000 17ztE 0.00000000194Gd 
 
DISCUSSION
  • #2825: Anonymous 17-04-14 at 23:31
     

    Could be quite the upset

    #2826: Anonymous 18-04-14 at 00:02
     

    13 weeks = 6, possibly 7 retargets. 69788426501.1234^6 = 14027811577. +12.34% each time means yes, but less means no. ATM estimate is +18.77%.

    #2828: Anonymous 18-04-14 at 04:13
     

    ATM estimate from site that is consistently wrong. Looks very high guesstimate to me. Will be watching this closely. Miners are hurting.

    #2832: Anonymous 19-04-14 at 00:59
     

    #2828 Please bet more on No. kthxbai

    #2873: Anonymous 30-04-14 at 02:46
     

    Looking increasingly at risk

    #2888: Anonymous 02-05-14 at 00:02
     

    compare the odds: goo.gl/bjZSwX

    #2890: Anonymous 02-05-14 at 02:54
     

    #2888, strange how the odds of diff greater than 14B on June 15th on your site are so different than the odds here for 14B on JULY 14.

    I would bet a fine fortune on NO on your site, but then again, I wouldn’t see my winnings if I did make the right choice.

    Better to stay with the tried and true. BITBET

    #2911: Anonymous 14-05-14 at 08:32
     

    Tight

    #2917: Anonymous 16-05-14 at 09:33
     

    Moar profitable to bet at bitbet than to own it

    #2940: Anonymous 22-05-14 at 20:23
     

    1K4Fs could make a killing here

    #2941: Anonymous 23-05-14 at 00:58
     

    Altcoin could become a serious coin

    #2949: 1K4Fs 25-05-14 at 12:06
     

    1K4Fs is thanked for his contribution

    #2986: Anonymous 02-06-14 at 01:37
     

    Come on, throw some more singles at it!

    #2987: Anonymous 02-06-14 at 02:32
     

    Curious to see if a diff change happens on Bastille Day

    #2993: Anonymous 02-06-14 at 15:15
     

    Well you could start a bet on it….

    #2999: 36 Guy 03-06-14 at 21:26
     

    Nah, diff change will be on 13th July. But this will be over well before then

    #3000: Anonymous 03-06-14 at 22:54
     

    Not often you see all the trailing bets going the wrong way

    #3001: FFS 04-06-14 at 02:58
     

    Are the end-May bets gonna actually get paid, and not just “resolved”?!?

    #3002: Anonymous 04-06-14 at 03:36
     

    14 billion on 17th June

    #3005: Anonymous 04-06-14 at 14:57
     

    June or July. Same difference

    #3009: Anonymous 06-06-14 at 07:02
     

    #3001: stop by #bitcoin-assets on irc.freenode.net and complain to mircea_popescu or kakobrekla

    #3019: Anonymous 09-06-14 at 04:05
     

    Ahahaha no is going to wiiiin

    #3020: Anonymous 09-06-14 at 04:57
     

    Wanna bet?

    #3025: Anonymous 10-06-14 at 06:39
     

    Come on 1sz9w, public wants moar

    #3027: Anonymous 10-06-14 at 20:16
     

    The public demands it!

    #3028: 1sz9w 11-06-14 at 06:40
     

    How many should I bet?

    #3029: Anonymous 11-06-14 at 09:56
     

    All u got

    #3030: Anonymous 11-06-14 at 11:28
     

    lol

    #3031: Ferty Six 11-06-14 at 11:52
     

    gwibble

    #3032: Anonymous 11-06-14 at 11:57
     

    Christ what’s with the proposition spam?

    #3033: Anonymous 11-06-14 at 18:34
     

    This is my last bet on bibet.us, switching over to the new betmoose.com. I’m so tired of the “we take 1%” even if you win crap. I can’t bet 100 BTC on this since my 1% in fees exceeds the payout! Plus I’m late so the multiplier is crap. Hey bitbet; change your policies to what betmoose does https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=645747.0, maybe I’ll come back.

    #3034: Anonymous 11-06-14 at 19:02
     

    Have fun.

    #3035: Anonymous 11-06-14 at 19:14
     

    #3033, so was this last bet of yours a bet you actually made or a bet you imagined you might make if you know, BitBet was more like some new scam you’re pushing and if you wallet was more like 100 BTC than 100 microBTC?

    #3036: Anonymous 11-06-14 at 19:15
     

    #3032, Teh community trying to make Bitbet more like whatever.

    #3039: Anonymous 11-06-14 at 23:08
     

    #3033, if you only want to leech on “sure bets” then you’re not welcome here. that’s why we LIKE the weight system. rewards risk tasking, fucks the leechers.

    of course assuming you’re not “betmoose” admin.

    #3040: Anonymous 12-06-14 at 00:47
     

    Admin=CEO,only coder,PR manager etc.

    #3042: Anonymous 12-06-14 at 04:50
     

    #3039: no such thing as a leech dude. If it’s a sure thing, don’t complain if others bet on it when you aren’t

    #3046: Anonymous 12-06-14 at 12:21
     

    To remove leechers one need to add quadratic weight loss not linear to time.

    #3050: Anonymous 12-06-14 at 15:22
     

    #3046, Quadratic my foot. Go seek yo rent somewhere else.

    #3052: Anonymous 12-06-14 at 20:09
     

    #b54 zomg!! late leeech

    #3061: Anonymous 12-06-14 at 22:02
     

    My girlfriend is late and she’s a total leech.

    #3071: Anonymous 13-06-14 at 21:10
     

    Late leeches also seem to have no idea, and make guaranteed money-losing two ways…

    #3083: Anonymous 15-06-14 at 02:37
     

    Bwahaha. Rule #1 of bitcoin: don’t bet against difficulty

    #3084: Anonymous 15-06-14 at 03:58
     

    #3083 go look up diff bets from june, may, april. They all resolved no.

    #3103: Anonymous 18-06-14 at 03:21
     

    Just two 4.3% increases needed to scrape in at end of 14Jul

    #3105: derpnonamous 18-06-14 at 11:55
     

    More like one change at 4.0

    #3109: Anonymous 18-06-14 at 15:56
     

    <gribble> Current Blocks: 306518 Current Difficulty: 1.346258011452534E10 Next Difficulty At Block: 308447 Next Difficulty In: 1929 blocks Next Difficulty In About: 1 week, 4 days, 8 hours, 19 minutes, and 45 seconds Next Difficulty Estimate: 15413140721.7 Estimated Percent Change: 14.48876

    #3223: Anonymous 29-06-14 at 08:24
     

    Current Blocks: 308448 Current Difficulty: 1.6818461371161112E10 Next Difficulty At Block: 310463 Next Difficulty In: 2015 blocks Next Difficulty In About: 1 week, 3 days, 8 hours, and 0 seconds Next Difficulty Estimate: 67273861186.8 Estimated Percent Change: 300.00009

    #3234: Anonymous 30-06-14 at 17:53
     

    Please resolve. This was virtually settled the last week.

    #3270: Anonymous 02-07-14 at 04:20
     

    Do not resolve until 14.07

    #3271: Anonymous 02-07-14 at 05:02
     

    #3270: Huh? Reading comprehension problems?

    “equal to or greater than 14 billion on or before July 14, 2014”

    Clearly greater, and clearly before July 14.

    #3278: Anonymous 02-07-14 at 19:42
     

    if July 14 netdiff will be 13B, and July 13, that before July 14, will be 13B, then your statement will be wrong.

    #3279: Anonymous 02-07-14 at 20:27
     

    To bad, it’s true now. Learn to read.

    #3287: Anonymous 03-07-14 at 02:57
     

    Come on, resolve this shit, I need to bet again. No coinz.