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68.58 BTC
80.21 BTC

AlphaGo will defeat Lee Sedol overall in March 2016 match

Google's AI AlphaGo will play against the strongest Go player in the world, the Korean-born Lee Sedol March 9th-15th, 2016.

The bet is that AlphaGo will defeat Lee Sedol overall.

Bet outcome: Yes
Resolved by davout as part of BitBet's receivership.
  • Category:Misc
  • Bet started:5 months 2 weeks ago (12-02-2016)
  • Bet closed: 4 months 3 weeks ago (09-03-2016)
  • Resolved: 3 months 2 weeks ago (16-03-2016)
  • Weighted No: 3`247`460
  • Weighted Yes: 3`027`536
  • Confirmed bets: 177 ( No: 79  /  Yes: 98 )
  • Histograph: Histograph
CONFIRMED BETS: 148.80 BTC
TIME BET WEIGHT BTC IN IN BTC OUT OUT  
12-02-16 05:16 Yes 99`982 0.04000000 13LMz 0.12929351 1Znor
12-02-16 05:16 No 99`982 0.06000000 13LiM 0.00000000 19YgU
12-02-16 05:16 Yes 99`982 5.10000000 13LC1 16.48492306 1Znor
12-02-16 07:01 No 99`698 1.00000000 13LqC 0.00000000 12aT4
12-02-16 08:03 No 99`531 3.74927428 13Lqy 0.00000000 1M7Zc
12-02-16 10:21 No 99`160 0.01500000 13LU5 0.00000000 1QEtJ
12-02-16 11:59 No 98`895 0.10000000 13Lve 0.00000000 12aZY
12-02-16 14:33 Yes 98`481 0.01400000 13LX9 0.04478144 1H88U
12-02-16 17:18 Yes 98`036 0.50000000 13Mbe 1.59434705 1Nbno
12-02-16 19:27 No 97`688 0.00586917 13mMd 0.00000000 13pL4
12-02-16 23:49 No 96`982 0.58000000 13mnx 0.00000000 17MwV
13-02-16 22:17 No 93`352 1.55000000 13n1D 0.00000000 15Kfr
14-02-16 08:05 Yes 91`768 0.10000000 13N8w 0.30481190 18sNm
14-02-16 11:17 No 91`252 0.14960000 13nPh 0.00000000 1EXjc
14-02-16 17:47 Yes 90`200 2.50000000 13ntX 7.53238219 1MCV6
15-02-16 03:58 Yes 88`555 0.12335000 13o5u 0.36709697 1DsbQ
15-02-16 04:16 No 88`506 5.00000000 13nVv 0.00000000 19D88
15-02-16 11:06 Yes 87`404 0.04997976 13ohv 0.14745257 1dVak
15-02-16 13:25 Yes 87`029 0.00150000 13omX 0.00441275 1HNUX
15-02-16 14:53 No 86`793 0.10000000 13oo1 0.00000000 1EmWn
15-02-16 18:15 No 86`247 2.50000000 13oQh 0.00000000 17Hve
15-02-16 20:01 No 85`961 0.01000000 13oTA 0.00000000 19sgs
15-02-16 20:01 Yes 85`961 0.00250000 13osp 0.00729470 19sgs
16-02-16 09:29 Yes 83`787 0.02000000 13PJx 0.05738251 32gLm
16-02-16 09:45 No 83`744 5.01000000 13otS 0.00000000 1NGGT
16-02-16 10:11 Yes 83`673 1.00000000 13PP1 2.86656913 1SHwG
16-02-16 12:41 Yes 83`270 0.50000000 13pRt 1.42876544 15ayt
16-02-16 12:58 Yes 83`224 0.02000000 13pvd 0.05712998 1Ke91
16-02-16 15:27 No 82`822 3.18135891 13pyQ 0.00000000 1P9b2
16-02-16 19:28 Yes 82`172 0.50000000 13qbe 1.41645279 1C6zJ
16-02-16 20:46 Yes 81`962 0.00969311 13QCx 0.02741401 1Ccdy
16-02-16 21:38 Yes 81`824 0.40000000 13qgL 1.13004033 1Nt3T
16-02-16 22:03 Yes 81`754 0.25000000 13qig 0.70588273 3F4pa
17-02-16 00:03 No 81`434 0.25000000 13QJy 0.00000000 1K7G9
17-02-16 02:37 No 81`017 0.00150000 13QN2 0.00000000 13K5r
17-02-16 04:26 Yes 80`724 0.00246360 13qSQ 0.00689914 1Zp6r
17-02-16 04:31 Yes 80`710 0.10000000 13qBr 0.28001167 1EyDu
17-02-16 05:29 Yes 80`554 0.50000000 13QxK 1.39830901 1J5aZ
17-02-16 11:18 Yes 79`615 0.04283000 13r8x 0.11887717 17VmJ
17-02-16 11:18 Yes 79`615 0.01139200 13R8H 0.03161916 134Sn
17-02-16 13:09 No 79`315 0.19900000 13reB 0.00000000 1KYt9
17-02-16 13:39 Yes 79`235 0.00103000 13rFG 0.00285004 15nFd
17-02-16 17:40 No 78`587 0.02500000 13rM6 0.00000000 1FDzm
17-02-16 20:58 No 78`052 0.02787000 13RQt 0.00000000 17cA8
17-02-16 23:36 Yes 77`628 0.30000000 13rRR 0.81929862 1AY2f
18-02-16 01:34 No 77`310 0.02000000 13RRx 0.00000000 13K5r
18-02-16 03:35 Yes 76`983 0.10000000 13rsW 0.27165297 1DCjs
18-02-16 06:32 Yes 76`507 0.04990000 13RvQ 0.13502212 1GHBA
18-02-16 06:48 No 76`463 0.01000000 13rx9 0.00000000 1NF4s
18-02-16 12:36 No 75`526 0.00170000 13Sa8 0.00000000 16dax
18-02-16 12:38 Yes 75`520 0.34000000 13SAs 0.91246426 3ELon
18-02-16 12:45 No 75`501 0.01000000 13sBT 0.00000000 1MrwX
18-02-16 22:55 No 73`858 0.02364960 13sFz 0.00000000 1Grbd
19-02-16 05:47 No 72`750 0.00500000 13sho 0.00000000 15H61
19-02-16 06:18 Yes 72`665 0.11912419 13SiP 0.31206822 1AnRh
19-02-16 06:18 Yes 72`665 0.03410000 13sii 0.08933136 1AnRh
19-02-16 07:55 Yes 72`404 0.00500000 13Sk5 0.01306917 1HNao
19-02-16 16:17 Yes 71`052 0.00260000 13sLU 0.00671713 15ief
19-02-16 16:53 Yes 70`956 0.33400000 13SMK 0.86217413 1GgPZ
19-02-16 18:36 Yes 70`678 2.00000000 13SoK 5.15024974 1Nt3T
19-02-16 19:47 Yes 70`489 1.00000000 13SQS 2.57088609 13mmS
19-02-16 19:47 No 70`489 0.99999999 13SqH 0.00000000 33nXj
19-02-16 22:10 Yes 70`103 0.10000000 13SRH 0.25622291 1BXLf
19-02-16 22:22 Yes 70`070 0.90000000 13Srw 2.30534010 1BXLf
19-02-16 22:37 Yes 70`029 0.75000000 13sS8 1.92042710 19LiG
19-02-16 22:52 Yes 69`988 1.00000000 13SSQ 2.55964995 17MwV
19-02-16 23:10 Yes 69`941 1.00000000 13SSs 2.55859586 1BXLf
20-02-16 00:20 Yes 69`753 1.70000000 13STt 4.34244517 17ZBG
20-02-16 02:57 Yes 69`329 0.44000000 13Sv2 1.11974292 1Geqv
20-02-16 17:44 Yes 66`940 4.50000000 13SZQ 11.21081036 18bXd
20-02-16 18:21 No 66`842 0.00500000 13sZp 0.00000000 1C4cv
21-02-16 08:57 No 64`482 2.03600000 13tAa 0.00000000 3H1nK
21-02-16 16:26 Yes 63`272 0.10000000 13TAg 0.24090274 19E6r
21-02-16 18:07 No 63`000 1.00000000 13tAo 0.00000000 1NuEa
21-02-16 21:51 Yes 62`398 0.22538640 13Tck 0.53854409 14bwY
22-02-16 00:44 Yes 61`930 2.94000000 13tE6 6.99405373 1CGf3
22-02-16 02:08 Yes 61`706 1.00000000 13TfW 2.37390610 1MTvt
22-02-16 02:14 No 61`689 2.28600000 13Ted 0.00000000 1NEYe
22-02-16 04:53 Yes 61`261 0.30000000 13TG9 0.70917777 1F6aY
22-02-16 21:31 Yes 58`572 0.22755717 13TLr 0.52420492 1KAEK
23-02-16 04:55 No 57`377 4.50000000 13Tot 0.00000000 1HtWf
23-02-16 10:48 No 56`425 0.08930000 13Tqe 0.00000000 1G6CD
24-02-16 08:39 Yes 52`897 5.00000000 13tvG 10.88171498 1AbPd
24-02-16 08:50 No 52`867 0.05000000 13tvK 0.00000000 15oaA
24-02-16 11:46 No 52`391 0.10000000 13tvP 0.00000000 1MhgS
24-02-16 19:37 Yes 51`124 1.00000000 13U4W 2.13657918 1Nbno
24-02-16 20:26 Yes 50`991 0.10000000 13U5c 0.21335963 1D3sZ
25-02-16 02:32 No 50`006 3.00000000 13Uii 0.00000000 1Jeff
25-02-16 02:53 Yes 49`949 0.09200000 13uJj 0.19414088 1Bksz
25-02-16 08:17 No 49`078 1.00100000 13UX7 0.00000000 1Mb4z
25-02-16 10:59 No 48`640 0.60000000 13UZt 0.00000000 1NKCq
25-02-16 14:25 Yes 48`086 0.05000000 13V2M 0.10342223 1QJuJ
26-02-16 17:30 No 43`708 0.50000000 13vJL 0.00000000 1GJgu
26-02-16 18:44 Yes 43`509 0.05000000 13VKN 0.09828972 1Ldua
26-02-16 18:44 No 43`509 0.05000000 13VKd 0.00000000 1Ldua
26-02-16 21:52 Yes 43`004 0.72908002 13vma 1.42496398 1CYJH
27-02-16 16:27 Yes 40`002 0.01200000 13vVR 0.02264569 1NoCX
28-02-16 06:49 No 37`681 0.49900000 13vYy 0.00000000 1Aygh
28-02-16 11:01 No 37`000 0.02350000 13vZU 0.00000000 17hxW
28-02-16 11:35 Yes 36`910 0.11745000 13vzr 0.21350012 17hxW
28-02-16 13:42 Yes 36`566 2.00000000 13w3M 3.62016174 1LgN6
28-02-16 22:05 Yes 35`214 0.22795140 13WGg 0.40569855 1JsfK
28-02-16 22:20 Yes 35`171 0.01000000 13whQ 0.01778794 1FWmd
29-02-16 03:13 Yes 34`383 0.46296190 13Wi9 0.81533230 16x9E
29-02-16 10:56 Yes 33`137 0.01830000 13Wpn 0.03171714 13FyN
01-03-16 12:10 No 29`058 0.30000000 13Xbm 0.00000000 12JHs
01-03-16 12:10 No 29`058 0.20000000 13Xba 0.00000000 1CdVo
01-03-16 14:39 No 28`658 0.02536548 13XD1 0.00000000 3QYZw
02-03-16 04:53 Yes 26`356 0.02315833 13Y3V 0.03661556 1QCJE
02-03-16 08:57 Yes 25`700 0.00298908 13Y8V 0.00468204 12Xq3
02-03-16 11:51 Yes 25`231 0.10000000 13yev 0.15558661 1DNdc
02-03-16 15:53 Yes 24`578 0.11628447 13yJm 0.17922006 1HiKe
02-03-16 15:53 No 24`578 2.05510566 13Yit 0.00000000 3QYZw
02-03-16 15:53 No 24`578 0.04000000 13YhH 0.00000000 1MrwX
02-03-16 18:28 Yes 24`163 0.50000000 13YKa 0.76595682 1RMmG
02-03-16 19:34 No 23`985 0.00230000 13YqV 0.00000000 327Kw
02-03-16 19:34 Yes 23`985 0.02300000 13YQ5 0.03514219 3Dkek
03-03-16 00:11 No 23`238 0.20000000 13YSy 0.00000000 1MrwX
03-03-16 10:52 No 21`512 0.01000000 13Z4a 0.00000000 18puu
03-03-16 18:50 Yes 20`224 0.02579467 13ZCJ 0.03723646 17F87
04-03-16 05:57 No 18`428 0.40000000 13ZeV 0.00000000 1Mn3H
04-03-16 10:24 Yes 17`710 0.06000000 13zmz 0.08323137 1Amsf
04-03-16 11:18 No 17`563 0.09943758 13ZQ9 0.00000000 15Kam
04-03-16 19:33 Yes 16`231 0.00561574 13zUi 0.00760382 1DVrF
05-03-16 00:58 Yes 15`355 0.67590000 13zY8 0.90190268 12ubQ
05-03-16 02:56 Yes 15`037 0.10000000 13ZyM 0.13272410 12tSB
05-03-16 16:42 No 12`813 1.27408011 141EQ 0.00000000 1DDii
05-03-16 23:05 Yes 11`781 1.13729319 141fv 1.42641288 18wPu
06-03-16 01:51 Yes 11`336 0.35580000 141H7 0.44269958 1Fs7K
06-03-16 12:58 No 9`538 4.00000000 141mH 0.00000000 17w1w
06-03-16 16:08 No 9`028 0.69800000 141NA 0.00000000 1AMQY
06-03-16 18:46 No 8`602 0.36000000 141NS 0.00000000 1JTpU
06-03-16 20:25 No 8`334 1.00000000 141Nt 0.00000000 1HUb1
07-03-16 02:16 Yes 7`388 3.85477620 141r1 4.45494074 1Dmuc
07-03-16 04:55 No 6`960 0.50000000 141Zt 0.00000000 15MUp
07-03-16 10:50 Yes 6`004 1.00000000 1422d 1.12465420 1Nnyq
07-03-16 16:19 Yes 5`120 0.20000000 142d7 0.22096567 1MLx5
07-03-16 16:19 No 5`120 1.00000000 142By 0.00000000 15Vzk
07-03-16 16:38 Yes 5`068 10.00000000 142bj 11.03662141 1FC58
07-03-16 19:46 No 4`561 0.08900000 142hb 0.00000000 1NpQn
07-03-16 20:24 No 4`460 1.11995078 142hZ 0.00000000 1FEVF
07-03-16 22:16 Yes 4`158 1.00000000 142pD 1.08325319 1Magd
07-03-16 22:41 Yes 4`090 0.24260000 142Pc 0.26242724 1Dv2u
07-03-16 23:25 Yes 3`972 0.30000000 142rQ 0.32372450 1KUEj
08-03-16 03:35 Yes 3`299 0.50000000 142XF 0.53199402 18hD9
08-03-16 03:57 Yes 3`239 0.10000000 1432W 0.10626423 18M2t
08-03-16 04:17 No 3`184 0.02000000 14378 0.00000000 158iz
08-03-16 04:23 No 3`170 2.00000000 143AA 0.00000000 1Fr8q
08-03-16 04:43 Yes 3`116 0.05000000 143CY 0.05299419 1PDxf
08-03-16 05:12 Yes 3`038 0.00743565 143Gs 0.00786791 1LT2b
08-03-16 05:12 No 3`038 0.01000000 143fu 0.00000000 1EuDW
08-03-16 06:06 No 2`892 0.05114439 143kK 0.00000000 1Gf56
08-03-16 06:33 Yes 2`820 0.05000000 143M9 0.05266226 1HBjk
08-03-16 08:13 No 2`551 0.45585936 143Tc 0.00000000 1GRF6
08-03-16 09:37 No 2`324 0.18900000 143yv 0.00000000 1Kk2a
08-03-16 10:00 No 2`260 5.00000000 14412 0.00000000 17w1w
08-03-16 11:09 No 2`076 0.02000000 1449L 0.00000000 16dax
08-03-16 11:20 No 2`046 0.10000000 144Dy 0.00000000 1L6jq
08-03-16 11:20 No 2`046 0.14870000 1434M 0.00000000 3GNyt
08-03-16 11:33 No 2`012 3.82075928 144MH 0.00000000 38TkQ
08-03-16 12:45 Yes 1`818 0.04880000 144Rn 0.05030172 18uB7
08-03-16 13:07 Yes 1`759 0.12940000 144Y8 0.13321080 1ByDn
08-03-16 13:40 Yes 1`668 0.01990000 1452F 0.02044543 1FByM
08-03-16 13:45 Yes 1`656 0.50000000 1453j 0.51356990 1HBjk
08-03-16 13:54 No 1`630 0.50000000 14557 0.00000000 1FveB
08-03-16 16:56 Yes 1`142 2.99800000 145qC 3.04480510 1NVm8
08-03-16 16:56 No 1`142 0.10000000 145ng 0.00000000 1hEWn
08-03-16 16:56 No 1`142 0.06000000 145Ef 0.00000000 1P2G1
08-03-16 17:23 Yes 1`070 0.04500000 145U3 0.04562988 3Km8h
08-03-16 20:45 Yes 524 0.01988990 146Eq 0.01992474 1Jsdy
08-03-16 21:00 Yes 483 4.85000000 146jV 4.85403734 1nN7x
08-03-16 21:22 Yes 424 10.00000000 146q3 9.99509224 1Pyzx
08-03-16 21:37 No 384 0.07000000 1471p 0.00000000 17bCk
08-03-16 22:06 No 307 1.83235000 147bh 0.00000000 1Caap
08-03-16 22:35 Yes 227 0.05000000 147CB 0.04975455 1e985
08-03-16 22:51 No 184 0.01000000 147Fk 0.00000000 1FD8A
08-03-16 23:41 No 50 0.50000000 147JU 0.00000000 18ztn
DISCUSSION
  • #5630: Anonymous 12-02-16 at 08:50

    Consensus among 9p players (9dan professionals) is that AlphaGo will lose. AlphaGo is strong but not in the same class as 9p players, especially not Lee Sedol. Source: https://smartgo.com/blog/lee-sedol-vs-alphago.html

    #5631: Anonymous 12-02-16 at 08:52

    https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/42ymo8/the_computer_that_mastered_go_nature_video_on/

    #5632: Anonymous 12-02-16 at 08:54

    http://deepmind.com/alpha-go.html

    #5633: Anonymous 12-02-16 at 10:11

    https://www.reddit.com/r/baduk/comments/43xret/how_likely_is_alphago_to_win_50_against_lee_sedol/
    https://www.reddit.com/search?q=alphago
    https://www.reddit.com/r/baduk/comments/43g2jl/synopsis_of_myungwan_kims_analysis_of_fan_hui_vs/
    https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/430t1f/googles_alphago_is_the_first_ai_to_beat_a_human/

    #5634: Anonymous 12-02-16 at 10:26

    https://www.reddit.com/r/baduk/comments/439ko4/alphago_vs_lee_sedol_fair_game/

    #5635: Anonymous 12-02-16 at 12:49

    Google never throws $1m money recklessly.
    One developer at DeepMind said he would be "very disappointed" if AlphaGo lose.
    And he alluded that using "tricks" might work for defeating AlphaGo, which showed enough confidence of winning witout the opponent "cracking the system".
    1 year of AI evolution was huge, DeepMind team has 5-month extra time for improving their system further since October.
    I would be grateful if human side has a chance of 50/50 winning the match.

    #5638: Anonymous 12-02-16 at 17:38

    Article argues that AlphaGo is player #249 in the world or so:
    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10981679

    #5640: Anonymous 14-02-16 at 09:08

    Given the number of mistakes against FanHui 9p, there's no way AlphaGo can touch Lee Sedol

    #5641: Anonymous 14-02-16 at 15:25

    AlphaGo is going to lose. No way ...

    #5645: Anonymous 15-02-16 at 16:59

    http://www.geekwire.com/2016/alphago-lee-sedol-whos-underdog-in-google-ai-million-go-match/

    #5646: Anonymous 15-02-16 at 17:00

    Sedol is dead meat :

    "Hassabis said most Go players are giving Sedol the edge over AlphaGo. They give us a less than 5 percent chance of winning but what they dont realize is how much our system has improved, he said. Its improving while Im talking with you.

    #5647: Anonymous 16-02-16 at 03:15

    #5646, easy money waiting for you then

    #5648: Anonymous 16-02-16 at 06:44

    I see your primary school reverse psychology strategy has stuck with you then ?

    #5649: Anonymous 16-02-16 at 11:27

    Nature video : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-dKXOlsf98

    #5650: Anonymous 16-02-16 at 12:37

    AlphaGo backing:
    Amateurs' database was used for the Fan Hui match, still AlphaGo won.
    (easy room for advancements, https://www.reddit.com/r/baduk/comments/43g2jl/synopsis_of_myungwan_kims_analysis_of_fan_hui_vs/czjbml1)
    Machines make no mistakes, are of steady performance.

    Lee Sedol backing:
    Too fast for the machine to overtake human top professionals.
    Humans have creativity.

    Since I am also a human being, I want Lee Sedol to win, but not sure how much time is left until a top human loses.

    #5651: Anonymous 16-02-16 at 15:31

    Will this make top bet on BitBet?

    #5653: Anonymous 16-02-16 at 22:53

    What is defined as "top bet" ?

    #5654: Anonymous 17-02-16 at 09:13

    Quibble: Lee Sedol is an amazing, fantastic player, but he is not ranked world #1 at the moment. "Just" #4, I believe.

    #5656: 36 17-02-16 at 14:31

    No way a freaking machine no one has heard of before is going to come out and beat the strongest 9p in the world. No effing way.

    #5660: Anonymous 18-02-16 at 07:15

    It's already the fifth one.

    #5661: Anonymous 18-02-16 at 12:48

    No way Alpha go will win.
    None heard of it till a few weeks ago.
    It is promising... but overrated

    #5662: Anonymous 18-02-16 at 22:52

    Most interesting bet so far

    #5666: Anonymous 19-02-16 at 23:18

    So excited about this upcoming match.
    Heard alpha go has improved a lot during 5 months..

    #5668: Seriously? 20-02-16 at 02:56

    way better odds here: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/alphago-vs-lee-sedol/all/?signup=1321
    Here you get 1,9 back if you bet one on Alpha - there you get 2.4 back.

    #5669: Anonymous 20-02-16 at 07:11

    How about you stop spamming your referral link you poorfag?

    #5670: Anonymous 20-02-16 at 07:16

    Check out the fairlay depth of liquidity pool: 284.88 mBTC ahahahahaha

    #5671: Seriously? 20-02-16 at 07:42

    Coz I want your referral puffter

    #5672: Anonymous 20-02-16 at 16:52

    Better luck next time.

    #5684: Alphago 22-02-16 at 17:21

    Is the Alphago computer isolated during the match? Or can a team of people behind the curtain play through the computer, thereby cheating, like IBM did with Deep Blue at chess?

    #5685: Anonymous 23-02-16 at 14:11

    #5684 :yeah, sure. And the moon landing was shot in a Hollywood studio. Dumbass.

    #5686: Anonymous 23-02-16 at 20:35

    #5684, ahahaha ... what a non-sense conspiracy :-D

    #5689: DGoB 24-02-16 at 16:58

    Tight indeed. But in the end the result will likely be either 5-0 or 4-1 for one of the sides. The problem is: we do not know yet for which one.

    #5692: Anonymous 25-02-16 at 06:59

    #5689 : Very clear to me which side wins. Game against FanHui 9p were not at Lee Sedol level. Very far.

    #5694: Anonymous 25-02-16 at 10:17

    No way Alphago will win. Pour your BTC on the NO side please ;-)

    #5700: Seriously? 27-02-16 at 01:04

    #5670, that is only what is offered at the current odds. As soon as someone takes this odds for 284mBTC new odds will be offered. It is the same here - the current odds (which are terrible - 1.4 for both sited compared to 1.9 on Fairlay) are also only good for a small amount the more you bet - the worse your odds will get.

    #5701: Seriously 27-02-16 at 02:08

    Less words moar buttcoin plox.

    #5705: Anonymous 27-02-16 at 23:20

    The weighted odd doesn't make sense for this type of bet where there's no advantage from betting late. There are many more who wanted to bet, but turn away due to the bad odd now.

    #5706: Anonymous 28-02-16 at 00:03

    Bet earlier next time?

    #5723: Anonymous 01-03-16 at 18:51

    If I think that alphago will win: Do I have to bet Yes or No?
    Thanks

    #5724: Anonymous 01-03-16 at 20:33

    Yes for alphago to win.

    #5728: Anonymous 02-03-16 at 16:00

    AI can beat human being from the beginning of the 21st century. we just didn't try to make AI GO program.

    #5729: Anonymous 02-03-16 at 20:26

    There have been several people who have worked hard to create strong Go programs. The best programs could already beat most amateurs, but couldn't touch professionals.

    The difference is that those programs were mostly done by individual enthusiasts, where Google/Deepmind has invested 7 figures of $ in personnel+computing power to create AlphaGo.

    #5745: DGoB 06-03-16 at 16:19

    unbelievable, how narrow the bet is to 1:1.

    #5757: jefflee 08-03-16 at 03:25

    Oops some crazy guy bet 10 btc on AlphaGo...

    #5759: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 05:19

    Lee Lowers Expectations! Did not fully understand what AlphaGo was capable of until now.
    http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/search1/2603000000.html?cid=AEN20160308001300315

    #5761: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 11:23

    FFS the bets continue at 2k and the amounts are even again

    #5762: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 11:23

    Gotta be one of the most unlikely wildly successful bets on BitBet

    #5763: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 11:30

    /me suspects most of the punters don't grok the weight system.

    #5764: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 11:43

    i originally think that Lee Sedol is sure win, but google seemed prepare a lot...

    #5766: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 20:25

    #5762 : A lot more people are watching the outcome of this than you might think. Machine Learning (the algo that powers AlphaGo) is a hot button topic these days. It was at the center of many discussions in Davos.

    #5767: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 20:39

    Anyone who's basing their prediction on how "close" the game was between AlphaGo and FanHui fails to understand how Monte-Carlo tree search algos work : they favor 99.99% chance of winning by 0.5 stones vs 99% chance of winning by 5 stones (they try to maximize odds of winning, but do not try to maximize score difference). Hence : AG vs. FanHui, it is easy to believe AG was "close" to FanHui. It was likely holding out.

    #5768: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 21:59

    All recent bets cannot win

    #5769: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 22:08

    No kidding. What a scam this site is. I suppose they're planning on people not really reading the FAQ. I mean it calculates the odds for you and says 1 pays 1 but that's a LIE.

    #5770: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 22:13

    #5769, idiots who see the 0.99... and then bet anyway, are being 'scammed' ??

    #5771: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 22:48

    On any other betting site without the "weight" if you see 1 yes pays 1 and 1 no pays 1 you would obviously assume the odds were 50/50 and the "pays" is in addition to the stake and not the total.

    The whole reason for the weight is to scam people. What is the purported reason given for it? How is a bet made now worth a huge multiple less of a bet made two weeks ago? It actually discourages bets on the site.

    #5772: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 22:55

    #5771:

    There's just one problem with your logic: the site doesn't actually benefit from people making that mistake. They take only 1%, but get unsatisfied customers who will not return.

    The weight is there so they don't have any risk at all; they just facilitate the bets.

    #5773: It's Go Time! 08-03-16 at 23:11

    The existence of the waiting system makes sense since later bettors have additional information to use to their advantage, but the final waiting shouldn't have been less than 50%.

    The fee should also probably be taken out of profit only, not the total bet.

    #5774: Anonymous 08-03-16 at 23:14

    My bad. Thanks, I get it now.

    #5775: Anonymous 09-03-16 at 01:45

    On second thought, it is a scam after all.

    Of course the site benefits from people making that mistake. They keep the losing bets and the winning bets they only give back their money.

    And it's all very misleading.

    The weighting system exists to make the scam possible.

    #5776: Anonymous 09-03-16 at 02:21

    Site doesn't keep losing bets the winners get them. Site only takes fee.

    #5777: Anonymous 09-03-16 at 02:22

    You can set your time weight when you propose a bet to whatever you want. Original author of the bet set it to 1. Could have set it to 100k. As for being a scam, please use the calculator.

    #5778: Anonymous 09-03-16 at 03:04

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting

    ^That link will explain how the betting works. The winning money gets all their money back, then the losing money is divided up to the winners.

    Specifically, winners get their money back + (amount bet) (weight of bet) / (total weight on winning side)(total amount on losing side), all minus 1% house fee.

    The weight is based on time you bet, earlier = greater weighting. But like I said, the simple explanation is winners split up the all the losing bets.

    #5779: Anonymous 09-03-16 at 07:38

    AlphaGo wins the first round motherfuckers!

    #5780: Anonymous 09-03-16 at 08:36

    Wow!
    1 down and my bet is looking safe. :)

    #5781: Anonymous 09-03-16 at 12:17


    As I predicted: AlphaGo wins. Not by a big score difference, but it ground down the puny human in a mechanical and systematic manner, nurturing the gap between her and Lee, but never making it so big so as to discourage the opponent. Amazing feat (and progress of AI).

    #5787: 36 10-03-16 at 08:58

    Again, the exact same behaviour at the end of the game : the AI knows with high probability that it will win and lets the human believe that it's catching up when it has in fact no chance whatsoever. Cat playing with a mouse.

    #5788: 36 10-03-16 at 09:02

    And it's confirmed by this: http://www.nature.com/news/the-go-files-ai-computer-wins-first-match-against-master-go-player-1.19544

    #5789: Anonymous 10-03-16 at 09:47

    Alphago wins :-) but don't forget that payouts are on hold. Patience will be needed.

    #5790: Anonymous 10-03-16 at 09:52

    game 2 to alphaGo! Yea!

    #5791: Anonymous 10-03-16 at 14:37

    "lets the human believe that it's catching up when it has in fact no chance whatsoever. Cat playing with a mouse."

    The algorithms don't work like this. It's sole goal is to win, not mess with someones head. It will press it's advantage as far as possible, regardless of how high the current probability of winning is.

    #5792: Anonymous 10-03-16 at 15:33

    Clearly a case of Chinese miner collusion.

    Solution is to work on a technical solution, like paying a 1 cent fee. Have to wait and see if can optimise to 0.75 cents.

    #5793: 36 10-03-16 at 16:35

    #5791 : I never said this was done by design. AlphaGo maximizes probability of winning, not score difference. The result is nevertheless what I describe.

    #5794: Anonymous 10-03-16 at 17:00

    ".. It will press it's advantage as far as possible .."

    This is correct, but.. a human player usually confuses this with being more points ahead. When AlphaGo is presented with two possible moves, and it thinks that one move will win with half a point and a probability of 99%, and another move would win 10 points ahead with a probability of 95%, then it will go for the strategy that only wins with half a point ahead, because after all winning is winning and it prefers the higher probability of winning over winning high.

    So when AlphaGo is ahead in the game, it is not pursuing more points, unless this is also the _best_ strategy to improve its probability of winning.

    Of course, in most cases gaining more points also increases the probability of a win, but it might not be the best strategy if all you care about is winning the game.

    Human players are much more inclined to use the number of points ahead as proxy for how "safe" a win is. Because of this it is easy to confuse AlphaGo's behavior with "not trying anymore" when it is ahead in the game.

    #5796: Anonymous 11-03-16 at 06:49

    "The result is nevertheless what I describe."
    You're anthropomorphizing the actions of AlphaGo, it is not letting the human believe it will catch up, or otherwise playing with them.. Such statements don't lead to a healthy understanding of how AlphaGo works, there are enough bruised egos on this thread as it is..

    #5798: 36 11-03-16 at 16:26

    #5796 : bruised egos are what make life worth living.

    #5804: Anonymous 12-03-16 at 08:33

    YEAH!!
    Let the little BTC come to me, and do not hinder them, for the kingdom of heaven belongs to such as these

    #5805: Anonymous 12-03-16 at 08:59

    bet resolved. Alphago wins! the Yes bets have it!

    #5807: double-check 12-03-16 at 14:50

    http://dpaste.com/293R0KV

    #5810: 36 12-03-16 at 19:13

    #5807 : What's that double-check dpaste stuff ?

    #5811: Anonymous 12-03-16 at 23:18

    the payout while bitbet navel gazes about paying a transaction fee

    #5816: AlphaGo 13-03-16 at 10:21

    I have brought shame and dishonor to my supporters.

    #5820: Anonymous 14-03-16 at 15:15

    bitbet should use AI to guess when it's time to bring resolution to a bet. It's been game over for 3 days now. Pay up !

    #5821: Anonymous 14-03-16 at 15:25

    You got to wait .. payments are on hold

    #5822: Anonymous 14-03-16 at 16:04

    Nice little way to extract 15 BTC from the "shareholders" you got there. Conveniently "lost" to anonymous addresses.

    Too bad the shareholders can't kick the management out for repeated gross incompetence and a never ending list of ways to lose money. I guess that's the accountability Mpex promises come with.

    #5823: Anonymous 14-03-16 at 16:06

    Ooh, I just noticed the shareholders have finally realised they have negative equity.

    #5824: Anonymous 15-03-16 at 05:25

    Have you finally realized you have negative brains?

    #5829: FirstTimer 15-03-16 at 17:44

    Hey guys, first time I'm using bitbet, or betting using bitcoin. I bet yes on the Alphago bet. What's the ETA on payouts? I just checked my coinbase account and am not seeing any payment yet. Thanks!

    #5831: Anonymous 15-03-16 at 19:43

    #5289

    Hi, payments are on hold.
    See link on page top

    #5832: FirstTimer 15-03-16 at 20:13

    #5831, I hadn't noticed that, thanks for pointing it out. That said, I just skimmed through the post and don't fully understand it (sounds like someone figured out a way to arbitrage this system?), so if someone can add a non-technical TL;DR, I'd appreciate it!

    #5833: Anonymous 15-03-16 at 21:12

    basically for some unclear technical reason a payment has been processed twice, causing a loss to bitbet admins.

    Some blames chinese mining pools, others the too low fee applied. let's see...
    Hopefully they'll clear this issue soon.

    #5834: Anonymous 16-03-16 at 04:00

    Unclear? What's unclear about they sent the money twice, and were surprised that both payments got confirmed?

    #5835: Anonymous 16-03-16 at 08:16

    mircea popescu, the miserable asshole who handles the money for this site made a mistake when creating a bet payout. He doesn't want to own up to that mistake and tries to blame the whole thing on some fantasy "chinese miner consipracy". In fact it was worse than a mistake: he was just being a his usual cheap ass and created a zero fee TX which was not included in any block for a long time. He then created a second one and unlucky for the dumbass both tx went through.

    The creator of the site and mircea are now in a dispute over a miserable 17 coins and all payouts are frozen.

    #5839: Anonymous 16-03-16 at 13:24

    I am afraid that insulting the admins will not speed up things ...

    ... till now they proved to be reliable, maybe rude sometimes... let's see what will be

    #5840: Anonymous 16-03-16 at 13:50

    #5839 : don't have skin in the game. in fact, wouldn't ever trust popescu with a single cent if my life depended on it. That also leaves me free to say whatever it is I think of the admins.

    #5841: btw 16-03-16 at 14:40

    admins can minimize some of loses by paying accordingly less to bush bet winner adresses in their further bets.

    #5843: Anonymous 17-03-16 at 00:17

    Where can I find the link explaining why this hasn't been paid yet? This is really bad.

    #5844: Anonymous 17-03-16 at 06:37

    So slowly!I can't for get the bitcoin. I want to use this to bet another one

    #5847: Anonymous 17-03-16 at 19:04

    Oddly I'm glad I didn't bet more even thought I won. It was my first, and probably last bet on this site.

    It seems that it is the position of the maintainers of this site that they are unable to pay out the bets because of some sort of Chinese miner conspiracy against them. Have they attempted to pay out all of the currently resolved bets, or did they conclude it was impossible after some of the transactions had the issue outlined in the link at the top of this page?

    Why don't they attempt to pay out all resolved bets now with a reasonable mining fee so that they can say that they at least did that? Perhaps there would be evidence of these attempted transactions even if they don't end up in a block, but I'm not familiar enough with Bitcoin to know for sure what that evidence might be.

    If it is indeed true that the Chinese miners, or anyone, are able to systematically exclude the transactions of a given payer then that's a tremendous weakness in Bitcoin.

    #5848: Anonymous 17-03-16 at 19:16

    I'm hoping the receiver of bitbet will do the right thing and pay out the winnings.

    #5849: Anonymous 17-03-16 at 19:32

    I'm deeply deeply sorry... I feel of us are about to be scammed...

    ... ... ... can't be true...

    #5852: Anonymous 17-03-16 at 22:08

    http://qntra.net/2016/03/miner-problem-pushes-bitbet-into-recievership/

    #5853: Anonymous 17-03-16 at 23:17

    Sad to see the site go down like this because of MP's screwup. I had a good 3 years here; thanks for that.

    #5867: Anonymous 20-03-16 at 17:55

    Wow. I can't believe the lack of integrity here. This was my first and only use of Bitcoin because I was interested in the concept and wanted to give it a try for something unique and was willing to have some trust and take a gamble -- but now I realize how scandal prone the thing is. Never betting here, or probably anywhere else, again.

    #5869: Anonymous 21-03-16 at 07:45

    Seems that for 17BTC Popescu is willing to blow up BitBet and its customers, and MPEX, and shareholders of both. Quite amazing.

    #5871: Anonymous 21-03-16 at 13:07

    Not really that amazing. MP has very consistently displayed his main psychological trait : spoiled child that can never be wrong and would rather break his toys rather than admit he made a mistake

    #5872: Anonymous 21-03-16 at 13:40

    what is going to happen with customer funds?

    #5874: Anonymous 21-03-16 at 13:52

    #5871, prolly correct. A sad and destructive individual indeed.

    #5875: Anonymous 21-03-16 at 13:56

    #5872, he's set it up like the other scammers he liked to point out, whereby he's in control and should anything go wrong the other side loses, your best bet it to view anything you get now as a gracious donation.

    And view all those in on the feast of customers' money as the scammers they are. MP by default takes the lot, but the other parasites are swarming already. The buzz is deafening.

    #5876: Anonymous 21-03-16 at 14:20

    I somehow thought he's not so a scammer, so I put a lot of btc still on bitbet. Stupid me. What are next possible scenarios with receiver-thing?

    #5877: Anonymous 21-03-16 at 16:05

    Guys,
    The fact that betting is not more allowed is a good sign.
    If the intent was to keep scamming i guess they would allow to keep deposit fund.

    I wrote to MP on his blog and he amswered in a polite manner in few minutes.

    It is my personal opinion that he probably got tired of running this website and that at the first serious accident he unilaterally decided to sell it.

    If it is true that the site will be bought by people behind Paymium, there are some good chances that all will be fine at the end.

    I personally hope to don't be dead wrong on this.
    In any case there is nothing we can do.

    #5878: Anonymous 21-03-16 at 23:26

    i wish there was another site where one could bet on whether bitbet will return the funds or not. i guess in finance this is called a credit default swap (CDS) and these things have been around for the last 25 years, but the crypto space hasn't yet graduated to this notion....

    #5879: Anonymous 22-03-16 at 06:21

    What would you bet on, yes or no?

    #5881: Anonymous 22-03-16 at 10:37

    #5869

    I would squarely bet on yes.

    MP and the bitcoin-assets crew have on average the social skills of a pack of hyenas in heat, but they're AFAICT a fairly honest bunch.

    Historically, Mircea has in fact been a strong resource for fighting and debunking scams, and I am fairly certain he'll end up doing the right thing - hopefully before the whole world completely loses interest in bitbet and the site becomes worthless.

    The only real risk is what "doing the right thing" will end up being in MP's sometimes bizarro moral values model.

    Another possible explanation for the current mess is that MP is conducting an experiment in conflict resolution in the brave new world of btc-powered corporations.

    #5882: 36 guy 22-03-16 at 14:00

    #5877, here's hoping he's not "got bored" of running MPEX too

    #5884: double-check 23-03-16 at 03:18

    BitBet is on the verge of collapse / liquidation after double paying Jeb Bush RNOM 17.93766065 BTCs.
    Please save BitBet by returning accidentally-sent Bitcoins back to the corresponding betting addresses.
    If you are a holder in good faith, please act now:

    19YgU: 0.08360357 BTCs to 18RA3hj4ayENv8dfMmgz5qrDCjAMFnUbrY
    1D1jM: 0.11929717 BTCs to 1GDzN6E454yGKNWzRrtqLgcF5JqyWHrQZx
    176mT: 0.11908936 BTCs to 124SiCFVekRfJJarFj5vWDyKSWRdJKgbUe
    1LVVD: 0.02842624 BTCs to 133a3qAkHnawswHuxYS4ap5rH1crTK6FMu
    1DNQn: 11.15522842 BTCs to 1LpifjhJ4dU6Ldh48s3c81qpmsEPp9jij7
    14wqg: 0.01189438 BTCs to 1EPkFG4fmpxGdmp1HJsJKHarpPdwwjQDuq
    19gYd: 0.55793078 BTCs to 13K3U1GqHrv5nZBm5uYCzxenBTqfzdTQMz
    14kTa: 0.11743359 BTCs to 1Df687pKL6t3Co6vsWMY2Zi7fXFhCBootQ
    197Ge: 0.46776462 BTCs to 1154532dzkxmBoNRjD8P5295irU2BUDfS6
    18cAY: 1.03444544 BTCs to 115aPWb1532EwSM8jedeQskbDwz87xK1sc
    1LqEM: 0.14375522 BTCs to 11bHsSEZ6wNBhuG2GYoE7KejztD1Nyjz9
    19qvv: 0.01103423 BTCs to 12EfpkWWSne7UYi6XhYRcWLBpCS4v5mS5i
    16LZu: 2.19349534 BTCs to 12EqFC3HMrbBedeiJiaY5YR92X63bZ6n3g
    1Fg8G: 0.21539022 BTCs to 12LnkaNa6ZDfvcNParK9dpG11WELL7etKy
    18SHQ: 0.53520508 BTCs to 12NzRMrarTKtDvohqwfUgvm43xWJgVhe2N
    18TqE: 0.53434890 BTCs to 12Pq2cRsA62FhSWd9kbYbiZJ6cZKQyDJ5h
    1Pvve: 0.01387644 BTCs to 12Q8MPAxzQqpp2F7chyYtbAptcM8VHCn4g
    1P9uq: 0.53129502 BTCs to 12yDwkkrrzgUT7WeNRCG5Ys1McAxZJ6DA4
    1PGX5: 0.01128196 BTCs to 13MqUVAcMEjvhbU58gPN27iY5in22AWYqq
    1Gqq5: 0.05286467 BTCs to 13Nem3qPPRBvpd4EMmFAkXFh1L8XUhstyY

    #5885: MrPresident 23-03-16 at 05:55

    Seriously?
    Did they really spend double and now you ask money back? Joke right?

    If the solution is posting here people should pay back I have little hope I ever see my bitcoins that i won.

    #5886: Anonymous 23-03-16 at 07:13

    5884: this is not the case i guess. majority of doublepaid btc could be easy recoverable just by withholding some btc from 1DNQn future payouts.

    #5887: double-check 23-03-16 at 07:19

    #5885, these are evidence of double paying everyone can see:
    bf77bf5ec7c02f4027caab024d5581d82bdea97ab8d7d97aac856169c038dd31
    and
    de9bc173174f5ae97e7fe0d2e171647cade189c76f9cbe48f37494c973aca2e4

    17.93766065 BTCs are Bitcoins gained for no legitimate reason, or gained at the expense of the unfortunate accident. It was like suddenly hit by a storm on a calm sea. Returning coins back is one way to cure the damage.

    #5888: 1Nb 23-03-16 at 08:05

    I do agree with double-check and #5887

    1DNQnJUDLTDjm4UCtsNdSenospAANPsF2i

    50.63 BTC pending in 12 bets.

    In case the Bitcoins gained for no legitimate reason will not be returned, they can be easily recovered just by witholding from future payouts.

    Anyway, for a website that has been handled thousands of BTC so far, it is quite a surprise to see all this mess for just 18 BTCs

    #5889: David FRANCOIS 23-03-16 at 09:46

    I think #5888 has a good point.

    If you have comments or relevant input regarding the receivership process feel free to comment on http://fr.anco.is/2016/bitbet-receivership-formal-application-and-letter-of-intent/

    #5890: Anonymous 23-03-16 at 10:15

    #5888

    Agree. For bettors who received too much money and have money still held in bets, there's indeed an easy fix.

    #5891: 1Nb 23-03-16 at 11:19

    Regarding the "withhold" proposal, making some math, here is what I see and how I would proceed.
    I apologyze in advance for the verbosity, but it is for the sake of clarity, for everyone.

    IMHO the report and the proposal I am about to make is fair and I hope my point of view will be shared also by those that are, or will be, in charge.

    So : there are 17.93766065 BTCs not legitimate winnings, so distributed :

    19YgUrvdgkaKavr2cUFbE5UqGGDyw1hEaM : 0.08360357 BTC - has 2.7101 BTC in 38 pending bets. Withhold.
    1D1jMVvtskv5RX8YcmwtgXyeRHDizaoohb : 0.11929717 BTC - has 0.1 BTC in 1 pending bet. Withhold,but not sufficient.
    176mTDHuGYoyPidjCkQQG8V6zSK3CrTKA2 : 0.11908936 BTC - has 1.3 BTC in 4 pending bets. Withhold.
    1LVVDPnvdSSdDJuyQnd9QJVGZ54rqAxU52 : 0.02842624 BTC - has 0.228 BTC in 12 pending bets. Withhold.
    1DNQnJUDLTDjm4UCtsNdSenospAANPsF2i : 11.15522842 BTC - has 50.63 BTC in 12 pending bets. Withhold.
    14wqgUXyHpuzyuwfYssfeLuL1YtZpeVkcR : 0.01189438 BTC - has 0.07 BTC in 7 pending bets. Withhold,but not sufficient.
    19gYdzkfeBiaUseTZVpga9F81fz1Si2Wez : 0.55793078 BTC - has 1.11 BTC in 1 pending bet. Withhold.
    14kTaLfMJ5VPKWufEzAcZCTZ741LZLCVMd : 0.11743359 BTC - NO PENDING BETS. Missing amount. See below
    197GetzehgtbDaSxyLzWDSnq8TTrsL9mwu : 0.46776462 BTC - NO PENDING BETS. Missing amount. See below
    18cAYS4jY59QXv4Sp9EpDLpbgyB7LRbCFe : 1.03444544 BTC - has 4.8 BTC in 5 bets. Withhold.
    1LqEMRTSU4E59zEhX8zrVTP5Un5t4AwvDX : 0.14375522 BTC - NO PENDING BETS. Missing amount. See below
    19qvvDa1rw6gqVuQTMy677rfLtMZj3UeXH : 0.01103423 BTC - NO PENDING BETS. Missing amount. See below
    16LZuQiLqRU1c36fX2QF5msi6FNaLhx3CP : 2.19349534 BTC - NO PENDING BETS. Missing amount. See below
    1Fg8GQBDrHyzCFdkLaSQtCckpeW5cZ2Sa : 0.21539022 BTC - NO PENDING BETS. Missing amount. See below
    18SHQxoDWPViDM6Puae46WNv6PZaoAFGHB : 0.53520508 BTC - NO PENDING BETS. Missing amount. See below
    18TqEY8eK5CZ9ChX8714ThtsKySjznXVsU : 0.53434890 BTC - NO PENDI

    #5892: 1Nb 23-03-16 at 11:22

    Sorry for poor text format. Text has been truncated. 2 part of 3.

    18TqEY8eK5CZ9ChX8714ThtsKySjznXVsU : 0.53434890 BTC - NO PENDING BETS. Missing amount. See below
    1Pvve54XzuUzVu4Hru44JXWuSP6zcTo7qo : 0.01387644 BTC - NO PENDING BETS. Missing amount. See below
    1P9uqDHbrtixTguM51VJpdFerMmV2mPzfK : 0.53129502 BTC - has 0.73 BTC in 4 bets. Withhold.
    1PGX5YxZbJFFTHTJoPhPwZbjuMZnxYRUyw : 0.01128196 BTC - NO PENDING BETS. Missing amount. See below
    1Gqq5BmhdN7GNcbiUCUR7gFws2WUnAMaYx : 0.05286467 BTC - NO PENDING BETS. Missing amount. See below

    Therefore real missing amount is 4.37385306 BTC :

    0.01929717 from 1D1jMVvtskv5RX8YcmwtgXyeRHDizaoohb
    0.05810562 from 14wqgUXyHpuzyuwfYssfeLuL1YtZpeVkcR
    0.11743359 from 14kTaLfMJ5VPKWufEzAcZCTZ741LZLCVMd
    0.46776462 from 197GetzehgtbDaSxyLzWDSnq8TTrsL9mwu
    0.14375522 from 1LqEMRTSU4E59zEhX8zrVTP5Un5t4AwvDX
    0.01103423 from 19qvvDa1rw6gqVuQTMy677rfLtMZj3UeXH
    2.19349534 from 16LZuQiLqRU1c36fX2QF5msi6FNaLhx3CP
    0.21539022 from 1Fg8GQBDrHyzCFdkLaSQtCckpeW5cZ2Sa
    0.53520508 from 18SHQxoDWPViDM6Puae46WNv6PZaoAFGHB
    0.53434890 from 18TqEY8eK5CZ9ChX8714ThtsKySjznXVsU
    0.01387644 from 1Pvve54XzuUzVu4Hru44JXWuSP6zcTo7qo
    0.01128196 from 1PGX5YxZbJFFTHTJoPhPwZbjuMZnxYRUyw
    0.05286467 from 1Gqq5BmhdN7GNcbiUCUR7gFws2WUnAMaYx

    #5893: 1Nb 23-03-16 at 11:25

    (3 part of 3).

    These 4.37385306 BTCs could be recovered by applying an extraordinary fee on next payouts.
    Considering the amount of BTCs in pending bets, an approximative 1% extra fee till the end of 2016 on all bets will be more than sufficient.

    I hope that writing down a few numbers can help everybody to clarify and solve the situation.

    I would really not flush down the WC www.bitbet.us for a 4.37385306 BTC net loss.
    Seriously, we are talking about "peanuts" here and this issue can be easily solved without having to write another sad page in short bitcoin history.

    Hope this help.
    Good luck everybody.

    David Francois : I will share this proposal on the link provived. Thanks for your interest.

    #5894: Anonymous 23-03-16 at 14:48

    So when MP receives double pays or mistaken pays or delayed pays, he keeps. But when it's his turn to fuck up, he's forgiven? Pull the other one.

    #5895: 1Nb 23-03-16 at 15:02

    Let's see what will be.
    Have some faith.

    I will really start to worry only when this website will be shut down and when there will be no answered questions.

    There is a negotiation ongoing.
    Probably things could be carried out in a less stressful way, but for the moment nothing really bad has happened. Just bets and payments on hold. Nobody run away.

    I do share your concerns... or better, I share much more than your concerns : I have more than 70 BTCs blocked here.

    My personal unrequested opinion is that MP was already considering to sell the business. It must be more bothering than we can know to handle a bet-site and the daily work it generates.

    #5896: Anonymous 23-03-16 at 18:15

    #5894 : So, in other words, you're willing to tank the whole fucking thing just to prove that MP is an asshole ? But the whole world is already aware of this, so what is there to gain exactly ?

    #5897: Anonymous 23-03-16 at 18:16

    #5895 : you're prbly correct. The 17BTC is just a lames excuse.

    #5898: Anonymous 23-03-16 at 21:56

    Ah the perils of address reuse!

    Also consider that MP normally uses address 1K4Fs, and bet 10 BTC at the beginning of the Donald bet. That looks likely to be worth around 30 BTC.

    #5900: Anonymous 23-03-16 at 23:32

    What ? Oh!Fuck! Just payout! Fuck! Fuckmother!

    #5901: MrPresident 24-03-16 at 09:01

    For a betting website, promoting anonymity, which uses bitcoins, trust is essential for people to place bets.

    Trust which is now broken.

    Lack of attempts and the lethargic approach towards current events shows signals the owner doesn't care much anymore. Maybe stealing, maybe try sell the place and leave a mess, maybe running into problems with impatient winners.

    Assume your money is gone, and be happy if you see something back.

    #5909: Anonymous 30-03-16 at 06:09

    If we withhold the same-address pending bets, the loss of 17.93766065 BTCs becomes 4.31574744 BTCs. Moreover, if we withhold the same-payer simultaneous bets (the three 2.00000000 BTC bets; 1G7VC(btc-700-apr), 16LZu(jeb-bush-rnom), 1H2YT(silver-19-apr)), the loss becomes 2.12225210 BTCs:

    txid: db56bbcfd4a14a3dd72b5e8351183ea00393a8e139b31f2abb00ff4d72c85fc9
    input(BTCs) output(BTCs) payout addresses
    1HU6X(1.83) 12EqA(2.00) 1G7VCgHWMwJhqEuBhn78yowbub7ADbQBbK (withhold)
    1FtLs(1.23) 12EqF(2.00) 16LZuQiLqRU1c36fX2QF5msi6FNaLhx3CP (double payout)
    13kQe(1.21) 19zqN(0.45) N/A (change)
    1MmyN(2.18) 12EqV(2.00) 1H2YTACS73xsqkQpcbhAsbuiSLpjKeAXTq (withhold)

    #5911: double-check 31-03-16 at 06:06

    Some people have questioned why Mircea have sent the payout tx with 0-fee.
    if we focus on the fact that BitBet accepts very small bets such as:

    1) 0.00122064 BTC, https://bitbet.us/bet/1236/bitcoin-to-top-700-before-apr-2016/#b52
    2) 0.00267000 BTC, https://bitbet.us/bet/1206/donald-trump-gets-republican-nomination/#b143

    , then we can understand why 0-fee txes were necessary.

    The reason is that the payout tx fee might very well exceeds the revenue from such small bets.
    One can roughly estiamte the cost of sending payout txes per bet with the formula: 1801+341 = 214 bytes.
    So the cost per bet is the price of 214 bytes in one block. One reasonable price is e.g. 20 satoshis per byte.
    The cost is 21420 = 4280 satoshis, while the revenue from 1) is 1220 satoshis.
    Maybe since Mircea have been intuitively able to understand this, he often made 0-fee txes.

    #5912: double-check 31-03-16 at 06:10

    Some people have questioned why Mircea have sent the payout tx with 0-fee.
    if we focus on the fact that BitBet accepts very small bets such as:

    1) 0.00122064 BTC, bet/1236/bitcoin-to-top-700-before-apr-2016/#b52
    2) 0.00267000 BTC, bet/1206/donald-trump-gets-republican-nomination/#b143

    , then we can understand why 0-fee txes were necessary.

    The reason is that the payout tx fee might very well exceeds the revenue from such small bets.
    One can roughly estiamte the cost of sending payout txes per bet with the formula: 180+34 = 214 bytes.
    So the cost per bet is the price of 214 bytes in one block. One reasonable price is e.g. 20 satoshis per byte.
    The cost is 214 times 20 = 4280 satoshis, while the revenue from 1) is 1220 satoshis.
    Maybe since Mircea have been intuitively able to understand this, he often made 0-fee txes.

    #5915: Anonymous 31-03-16 at 16:08

    #5912 : that doesn't make him less of an idiot. If he had indeed identified this as a problem (remains to be seen), he should have set a minimum bet amount instead of playing games with the BTC fee system. It's all the more unforgivable that if there is one person that understands how bitcoin works, it would be mp

    #5917: Anonymous 31-03-16 at 19:29

    BBET is for sale at auction:

    http://fr.anco.is/2016/bitbet-receivership-first-progress-report

    #5918: Anonymous 03-04-16 at 10:25

    you all need to check out this :

    http://fr.anco.is/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/BitBet_report_1_data.txt

    #5919: Anonymous 03-04-16 at 20:19

    5912

    You can split payments transcation on two parts

    one transaction for bets with > 0.010 btc and with normal big fee

    and one transaction for bets with < 0.010 btc with zero fee

    #5920: Anonymous 04-04-16 at 18:31

    Can new BitBet owner steal money from old bets?

    #5923: Anonymous 06-04-16 at 12:51

    http://fr.anco.is/2016/bitbet-receivership-second-progress-report

    #5925: Anonymous 08-04-16 at 20:56

    http://fr.anco.is/2016/bitbet-auction-a-winrar-is-znort987

    #5931: Anonymous 14-04-16 at 09:36

    http://fr.anco.is/2016/bitbet-receivership-third-progress-report