18.14 BTC
114.64 BTC

Avalon will deliver ASIC devices before April 1st

Avalon will deliver ASIC Bitcoin mining devices to a majority of their pre-order customers before 1st of April 2013. Devices must be in scope of +-10% of prototype units in order to be accepted as valid.

This bet will not close early. If devices are delivered before April 1st they must continue mining reliably until that date for the bet to be satisfied. Blown up units count as undelivered for the purpose of this bet.

Bet outcome: Yes
  • Category:Bitcoin
  • Bet started:1 year 4 months ago (01-03-2013)
  • Bet closed: 1 year 3 months ago (25-03-2013)
  • Resolved: 1 year 3 months ago (01-04-2013)
  • Weighted No: 1`474`633
  • Weighted Yes: 8`567`997
  • Confirmed bets: 33 ( No: 20  /  Yes: 13 )
  • Histograph: Histograph
CONFIRMED BETS: 132.78 BTC
TIME BET WEIGHT BTC IN IN BTC OUT OUT  
01-03-13 06:52 No 99`971 0.50000000 1QFY2 0.00000000 18f9P
01-03-13 06:52 No 99`971 10.00000000 1EBc6 0.00000000 1K4Fs
01-03-13 06:52 Yes 99`971 0.04000000 14pWc 0.04798450 152mA
01-03-13 06:52 No 99`971 0.06000000 1Lt6g 0.00000000 1F5xm
01-03-13 07:08 Yes 99`923 0.15000000 174RT 0.17992680 1Magr
01-03-13 11:23 Yes 99`178 3.00000000 1AYY3 3.59384989 1DJ8V
01-03-13 11:44 Yes 99`115 10.00000000 17Zsp 11.97817870 1Kgc9
01-03-13 13:41 No 98`774 0.15000000 18NrF 0.00000000 1FQCt
01-03-13 17:11 No 98`158 0.01000000 157sE 0.00000000 19JGx
01-03-13 19:14 No 97`797 0.09000000 1Jcgk 0.00000000 1Jf1T
01-03-13 21:17 Yes 97`437 25.00000000 15Dq8 29.85748872 1AexM
02-03-13 14:29 No 94`416 0.20000000 15Dtf 0.00000000 1CT8V
02-03-13 18:01 Yes 93`796 0.30000000 1FE3A 0.35599960 1B9y3
02-03-13 18:24 Yes 93`729 0.20340000 1SM7q 0.24133915 1BoRF
03-03-13 00:59 No 92`572 0.55004898 19XZF 0.00000000 1Eteo
03-03-13 03:17 No 92`169 0.00500000 1MPKq 0.00000000 128gM
04-03-13 19:54 No 85`034 0.25000000 17f2w 0.00000000 1FMJB
05-03-13 01:32 Yes 84`045 1.10000000 1A5BJ 1.28284208 15AgW
05-03-13 08:14 Yes 82`869 0.20000000 19jDY 0.23275086 1Nvww
05-03-13 09:47 Yes 82`594 0.50000000 12miW 0.58158885 1BnHA
06-03-13 01:19 No 79`867 0.20000000 1DKy7 0.00000000 1HbUs
06-03-13 14:46 No 77`503 0.25000000 1EwvH 0.00000000 1873s
08-03-13 13:41 No 69`264 0.60000000 1Ayfk 0.00000000 1873s
09-03-13 02:10 No 67`071 0.05000000 14rW2 0.00000000 1FR8D
09-03-13 06:58 Yes 66`226 60.00000000 13t1w 67.73150154 16tAo
13-03-13 22:52 Yes 46`571 14.00000000 1Q7tk 15.22705851 1CroB
14-03-13 05:27 No 45`415 4.00000000 18SKy 0.00000000 1KGom
14-03-13 08:04 No 44`956 0.75000000 19a5f 0.00000000 1HbUs
17-03-13 17:58 No 30`569 0.10000000 1C9Zd 0.00000000 1LaQ5
18-03-13 10:49 No 27`610 0.07123200 12rRt 0.00000000 1G1jV
22-03-13 21:41 No 8`839 0.20000000 1CcMw 0.00000000 15tc4
22-03-13 21:46 Yes 8`823 0.15000000 1C4Va 0.15127492 15tc4
24-03-13 03:54 No 3`529 0.11000000 1KFEJ 0.00000000 1LS5S
DISCUSSION
  • #245: Anonymous 01-03-13 at 10:51

    What does "majority of their pre-order customers" mean? Only batch 1? Or includes batch 2? Does it mean that we need 150 confirmed miners out of the 300 batch 1 orders? How do you go about proving that?

    #252: Anonymous 02-03-13 at 01:52

    As best you can I guess…

    #284: Anonymous 07-03-13 at 14:33

    How many have they delivered so far?

    #298: Anonymous 09-03-13 at 18:02

    batch 1 (300) + batch 2 (600) = 900 / 2 = 450 confirmed working/hashable units

    #299: Anonymous 09-03-13 at 18:03

    ^ is what is needed for YES, in my opinion

    #300: Anonymous 09-03-13 at 23:13

    Who would bet in a such an ambiguous statement…

    Obviously the the expression "pre-order" should include all batches, that’s 1 and 2.

    It’s also obvious that they won’t be delivering the 2nd batch before April 1st.

    So what we have is an obvious bet, which makes no sense.

    So one can conclude that the creator of the bet intended to mean 1st batch only, but that’s not the way he wrote it.

    What will prevail? What’s written or what was intended by bet creator?

    #301: Anonymous 09-03-13 at 23:16

    This bet is an easy win, if this website decides fairly (by written words, not intended meaning).

    Majority is 451 units delivered.

    Question is how to verify they have been delivered?

    #302: Anonymous 09-03-13 at 23:18

    I want to place bets, can the admin clarify these questions?

    1. Pre-order ncludes batch 2?
    2. What will be the method to count delivered units?

    #311: Admin 10-03-13 at 06:27

    Pre-order is batch #1 only.

    #321: Anonymous 11-03-13 at 03:41

    At the time this statement was created, there were TWO batches in pre-order.

    #345: Anonymous 13-03-13 at 21:15

    No way. I bet NO because i believed the Batch #2 will not be delivered! The Avalon team stated that they will deliver Batch #2 from March 5 to April 5. So it was obvious to me that the bet is about delivering: "more than half of ALL preordered units"!. That was written in rules! You cannot change those after people send the money in!

    #350: Anonymous 14-03-13 at 08:03

    All future deliveries!

    #361: Anonymous 15-03-13 at 13:31

    Batch 1 was PRE-ORDER, batch 2 was ORDER since they shipped worked Avalon to jgarzik on 31st of January, 2013, before starting 2nd batch orders.
    I bet YES because I already have 2 Avalons up and running now.

    #363: Bowjob 15-03-13 at 23:22

    I made this bet. This refers to batch 1 only, not 2 or 3.

    Batch 2’s deadline is April 15th. The bet expires on April 1st. go figure

    #367: Anonymous 16-03-13 at 05:30

    Bowjob,
    Thanks for clarifying.

    #368: Anonymous 16-03-13 at 05:33

    If you read the betting statement and go by dates, batch 1 and 2 are included as pre-orders. There were two sets of orders at the time this betting statement was created. Interpreting it in any other way is ridiculous.

    #370: Anonymous 16-03-13 at 11:21

    Bet’s should be judged by what is written.

    If the creator screw up and didn’t word it properly, too bad for him and who misread it.

    Interpreting bets strictly would have a double benefit:

    1. Encoraging more and higher bets
    2. Encorage bet creators to word it more carefully

    #377: Anonymous 17-03-13 at 14:02

    Who will judge this bet? There are a lot of Avalons in the wild now according to forums posts, how will he count all of them? And what about silent Avalon users just mining on them instead of writing reviews?

    #378: Anonymous 17-03-13 at 14:34

    Global network hash-rate tells the tale?

    #411: Anonymous 22-03-13 at 07:31

    It is over 55 Thash/s now, so I assume the answer is YES

    #412: Anonymous 22-03-13 at 17:14

    This is a bad bet. It is not resolvable one way or the other.

    #413: Anonymous 22-03-13 at 20:41

    The network may be up, but has all of that power been delivered or is it mining for its creator 0.o

    #414: Bowjob 23-03-13 at 00:10

    At this point, Avalon has shipped more than 50% of Batch 1. Quit bitching, there’s no scam here.

    #415: Anonymous 23-03-13 at 05:57

    Once again, this betting statement was created at a time where there were two batches under the "pre-order" umbrella.

    #416: Bowjob 23-03-13 at 06:47

    "Once again, this betting statement was created at a time where there were two batches under the "pre-order" umbrella."

    Use your fucking head for once. This refers to batch 1 only. I know full well that Avalon won’t ship batch 2 since its clear from their site that the deadline is after April 1st. The purpose of this bet is to have both sides to have a chance. If this means batch 1 and 2, that means this bet is 100% doomed from the start. If you bet on "No" giggling like a bitch about this "technicality", you’re getting this one wrong.

    #417: Anonymous 23-03-13 at 06:52

    You are showing your outward anger because you know you make close to no sense. If anything, this statement is worded vaguely enough that it should be considered a bad bet.

    The bottom line is that if you go by the betting statement wording and the dates, there are two batches under pre-order. Good attempt to sway betting action by writing a ridiculously vague statement, though.

    Read the betting statement word for word as it’s written and look at the dates. Are we supposed to assume things or go by how the statement is written?

    #418: Bowjob 23-03-13 at 07:01

    Yet, I assume you bet on it? Are you angle shooting or something? Regardless, unless Avalon 1s start frying and everyone reports their unit busted, the answer to this bet is "Yes".

    #419: Bowjob 23-03-13 at 07:11

    For the record, 1.) I did not take sides on this bet.
    2.) I believe I did write down specifically about batch 1 on the bet but it was omitted. The part where units are void if busted was added by someone else and NOT me. If I were to guess, it was probably MP.

    #513: Anonymous 01-04-13 at 15:37

    https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=163703.0